Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:30 UTC

Final: Hamburger SV 3–2 SC Freiburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 31.92%3.13fair odd
EV -0.099%
Edge -0.032%
Kelly -0.047%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.27%31.84%31.92%35.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.922.903.1338.46%34.30%34.48%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV +0.691%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.486%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.83%41.69%41.64%43.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.272.282.4250.00%44.07%43.86%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -0.718%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.261%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%26.47%26.44%27.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.603.7532.26%28.05%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamburger SV (Local): 31.92%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 41.61%; Draw: 26.48%. For SC Freiburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.691%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Suprabets🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.56%EV -12.55%E -4.58%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.13%EV +0.691%E +0.285%K +0.486%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 08:43
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.23%E -4.45%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -0.142%E -0.059%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 08:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.87%EV -5.84%E -1.98%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -2.22%E -0.945%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.86%EV -0.718%E -0.191%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 13:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.87%EV -5.84%E -1.98%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -2.22%E -0.945%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.86%EV -0.718%E -0.191%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 13:20
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV -2.22%E -0.945%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 13:19
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -17.02%E -6.54%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -2.22%E -0.945%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:21
GTbets🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.59%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.70%EV -3.05%E -1.31%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 13:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -3.29%E -1.09%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.64%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 13:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -3.29%E -1.09%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.64%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 13:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.35%EV -5.84%E -1.98%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.14%EV -3.47%E -1.50%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 13:19
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 31.12%EV -0.099%E -0.032%K -0.047%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.35%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.54%EV -2.84%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-10 13:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.49%EV -1.70%E -0.550%K -0.815%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.16%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.35%EV -2.57%E -0.699%K -0.959%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 13:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-10 13:19
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-10 13:19
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-10 13:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:20
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:19
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:19
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -8.08%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.98%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 13:20
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.63%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.98%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 13:20
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.27%EV -1.06%E -0.341%K -0.503%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -4.72%E -2.06%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.41%EV -2.84%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 13:20
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -2.65%E -0.870%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 13:20
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -2.65%E -0.870%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 13:20
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:20
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:19
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:19
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.13%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:19
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%EV -2.65%E -0.870%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.17%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 13:18
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 13:19
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -8.08%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -0.718%E -0.191%K -0.261%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 13:20
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:17
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:20
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:19
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.98%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 13:20
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.98%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 13:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 13:19
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 13:20
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -9.04%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 13:19
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 13:19
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.21%EV -10.63%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.32%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -3.37%E -0.922%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 13:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.63%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -1.06%E -0.341%K -0.503%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 13:19
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.25%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 13:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -5.84%E -1.98%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 13:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 13:19
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.44%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 13:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.23%E -4.45%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.23%E -4.45%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 13:19
Caesars🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -1.06%E -0.341%K -0.503%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:18
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.63%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-10 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -10.63%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -16.78%E -8.39%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -17.93%E -5.78%K -8.54%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-10 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-05-10 13:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-05-10 13:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-05-10 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-05-10 13:20
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.27%1.5%2026-05-10 13:20