The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Metz v Guingamp

2026-08-08 18:45 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 50.03%2.00fair odd
EV -5.94%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -6.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%50.11%49.97%51.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.821.831.8858.48%55.03%54.64%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guingamp (Visit)

Prediction 23.66%4.23fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -0.913%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.58%23.61%23.72%25.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.813.904.0729.41%26.28%25.64%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.31%3.80fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.28%26.31%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.483.6430.77%28.91%28.78%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Metz (Local): 50.03%; Guingamp (Visit): 23.66%; Draw: 26.31%. For Guingamp (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.07, with an expected value of -3.71%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.21%EV -3.71%E -0.913%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.54%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 21:05
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 14:39
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-01 20:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 20:19
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 19:15
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 19:15
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 19:15
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 19:14
Marathon Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.70%EV -7.94%E -4.32%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -6.79%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -4.23%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 19:14
Codere (IT)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.25%EV -7.94%E -4.32%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -9.23%E -2.67%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 19:24
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-01 16:04
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.29%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-01 20:25
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 19:13
SportsBet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.34%EV -8.94%E -4.91%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 14:40
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.94%E -5.52%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-01 18:57
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.94%E -5.52%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 14:44
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 49.39%EV -10.94%E -6.15%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -17.20%E -4.91%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -9.23%E -2.67%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-01 17:15
Unibet (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.36%EV -11.94%E -6.79%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -9.23%E -2.67%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-01 14:40
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 48.95%EV -11.94%E -6.79%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.34%EV -19.57%E -5.75%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.72%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-01 17:14
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -12.44%E -7.11%K -16.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-01 22:04
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 49.06%EV -12.44%E -7.11%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.53%EV -17.20%E -4.91%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-01 17:00
NetBet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 49.80%EV -14.45%E -8.45%K -20.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.99%EV -16.02%E -4.51%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.20%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%17.4%2026-08-01 20:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 48.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.93%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%16.3%2026-08-01 15:10