Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ilves Tampere v IFK Mariehamn

Inicio: 2026-08-09 15:06 UTC

Final: Ilves Tampere 2–0 IFK Mariehamn

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ilves Tampere (Local)

Predicción 73.44%1.36momio equitativo
EV -3.80%
Ventaja -2.90%
Kelly -12.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.46%73.41%73.39%75.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.211.261.261.3182.64%79.09%79.37%76.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

IFK Mariehamn (Visitante)

Predicción 10.43%9.58momio equitativo
EV +4.34%
Ventaja +0.434%
Kelly +0.482%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.58%10.43%10.43%12.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.508.648.5010.0013.33%11.58%11.76%10.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 16.13%6.20momio equitativo
EV +4.85%
Ventaja +0.745%
Kelly +0.881%
Crecimiento +0.043%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.45%16.16%16.18%18.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.555.506.5020.00%18.03%18.18%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ilves Tampere (Local): 73.44%; IFK Mariehamn (Visitante): 10.43%; Empate: 16.13%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.20. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.85%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.33%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.72%EV +4.34%E +0.434%K +0.482%G +0.021%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +4.85%E +0.745%K +0.881%G +0.043%2.9%2026-08-09 15:04
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV +4.85%E +0.745%K +0.881%G +0.043%6.5%2026-08-09 15:03
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.23%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%9.04I 11.06%NM 10.59%EV -5.68%E -0.628%K -0.706%G +0.000%6.31I 15.85%NM 15.18%EV +1.78%E +0.282%K +0.335%G +0.006%4.4%2026-08-09 14:55
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.05%EV -4.53%E -3.49%K -15.11%G +0.000%7.72I 12.95%NM 12.13%EV -19.45%E -2.52%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 15.82%EV -4.51%E -0.762%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 14:59
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.73%EV -6.74%E -5.30%K -24.95%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -4.83%E -0.819%K -0.986%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 14:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.05%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.14%EV -4.01%E -0.435%K -0.488%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV -4.83%E -0.819%K -0.986%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 14:59
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.09%EV -3.80%E -2.90%K -12.26%G +0.000%8.01I 12.48%NM 11.79%EV -16.42%E -2.05%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.12%EV -5.48%E -0.935%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 14:59
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.74%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -6.45%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 15:05
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 14:50
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.98%EV -6.74%E -5.30%K -24.95%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 14:30
Bovada🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.93%EV -6.74%E -5.30%K -24.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -21.74%E -2.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 15:03
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -10.41%E -8.53%K -47.31%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -0.875%E -0.092%K -0.103%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 14:54
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -10.41%E -8.53%K -47.31%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -0.875%E -0.092%K -0.103%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -7.25%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 14:53
LowVig.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.32%EV -4.53%E -3.49%K -15.11%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.19%EV -12.35%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.49%EV -8.06%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 15:00
BetAnything🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.32%EV -4.53%E -3.49%K -15.11%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.19%EV -12.35%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.49%EV -8.06%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 14:59
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.35I 11.98%NM 11.19%EV -12.87%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -8.06%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 15:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -8.06%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 14:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 14:50
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 14:50
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -6.00%E -4.69%K -21.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -6.00%E -4.69%K -21.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 14:50
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 14:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 14:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.14%EV -8.94%E -7.21%K -37.25%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.37%EV -8.70%E -0.994%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.49%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 14:55
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -10.41%E -8.53%K -47.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 14:55
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.41%E -8.53%K -47.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.41%E -8.53%K -47.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 14:30
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.41%E -8.53%K -47.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.28%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.96%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.60%EV +2.25%E +0.230%K +0.256%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 14:25
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.96%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.60%EV +2.25%E +0.230%K +0.256%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 14:25
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.47%E -5.93%K -28.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -6.09%E -0.677%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -12.90%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 13:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.85%EV -9.67%E -7.87%K -42.06%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.48%EV -19.66%E -2.55%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.67%EV -14.51%E -2.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-09 14:30
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -8.21%E -6.56%K -32.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -21.74%E -2.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -15.32%E -2.92%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.72%EV -11.14%E -9.21%K -53.06%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.35%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.92%EV -16.12%E -3.10%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-09 13:10
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -19.35%E -3.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -19.35%E -3.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -19.35%E -3.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 14:55
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -6.00%E -4.69%K -21.44%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -11.31%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -19.35%E -3.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 14:50
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -16.53%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -19.35%E -3.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 15:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.68%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.37%1.6%2026-08-09 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.68%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.37%1.6%2026-08-09 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.36%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.33%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%2.1%2026-08-09 15:05
Matchbook◎1.29I 77.52%NM 75.82%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.28%2.2%2026-08-09 15:05