Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

IFK Mariehamn v TPS Turku

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-12 14:01 UTC

Score final : IFK Mariehamn 1–0 TPS Turku

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

48 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

IFK Mariehamn (Local)

Prévision 38.08%2.63cote équitable
EV +0.917%
Avantage +0.346%
Kelly +0.556%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 2.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.01%37.95%38.06%39.86%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.202.462.422.6545.45%40.65%41.32%37.74%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

TPS Turku (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.12%2.77cote équitable
EV -4.28%
Avantage -1.62%
Kelly -2.60%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.08%36.14%36.13%37.51%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.302.522.502.6543.48%39.76%40.00%37.74%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 25.80%3.88cote équitable
EV +1.65%
Avantage +0.418%
Kelly +0.560%
Croissance +0.009%

avec la cote maximale 3.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.16%25.91%25.81%27.60%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.103.503.503.9432.26%28.59%28.57%25.38%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : IFK Mariehamn (Local) : 38.08% ; TPS Turku (Visiteur) : 36.12% ; Match nul : 25.80%. Pour Match nul, cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.88. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.94, soit une espérance positive de +1.65%.

Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.66%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.01%E -1.90%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.16%EV +1.65%E +0.418%K +0.560%G +0.009%5.1%2026-09-09 10:49
GTbets🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -4.03%E -1.60%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.16%EV -2.74%E -0.727%K -0.989%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 15:35
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -4.54%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 10:53
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -8.22%E -3.41%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.47%EV -5.58%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 12:31
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -8.22%E -3.41%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.47%EV -5.58%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 12:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.25%EV -7.08%E -2.90%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.18%EV -6.81%E -2.64%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -5.83%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:01
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.25%EV -7.08%E -2.90%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.18%EV -6.81%E -2.64%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -5.83%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:01
BetUS🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.25%EV -7.08%E -2.90%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.18%EV -6.81%E -2.64%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -5.83%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:00
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.99%EV -0.987%E -0.380%K -0.617%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.29%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-09 17:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 14:01
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 02:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:40
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -8.41%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 17:40
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.41%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.85%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -8.41%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 14:30
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 16:40
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:04
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:04
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 20:00
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 20:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 19:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 19:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 02:45
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 02:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -9.75%E -4.11%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 02:44
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -9.75%E -4.11%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 02:48
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -11.51%E -4.70%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -16.22%E -7.37%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-09 06:44
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.29%EV -16.22%E -7.37%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.01%EV -13.31%E -5.55%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.70%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-09 10:54
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.84%E -3.24%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -5.37%E -2.05%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.99%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 07:29
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.84%E -3.24%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -5.37%E -2.05%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.99%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 07:30
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:04
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV +0.917%E +0.346%K +0.556%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:05
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -2.89%E -1.13%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.51%EV -14.04%E -5.90%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -16.15%E -4.97%K -7.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 17:05
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -2.89%E -1.13%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.51%EV -14.04%E -5.90%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -16.15%E -4.97%K -7.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.31%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.10%EV -14.04%E -5.90%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.59%EV -17.44%E -5.45%K -7.93%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-08 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.31%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.10%EV -14.04%E -5.90%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.59%EV -17.44%E -5.45%K -7.93%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-08 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 35.21%EV -7.46%E -3.07%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.20%EV -16.93%E -7.36%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -20.02%E -6.46%K -9.54%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-08 17:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%10.6%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%10.6%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 47.46%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 21.51%24.0%2026-09-09 16:51