Language:English
Tranmere Rovers v Swindon Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tranmere Rovers (Local)
Prediction 26.33%3.80fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.464%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%26.25%26.57%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.553.7530.30%28.13%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Swindon Town (Visit)
Prediction 46.66%2.14fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%46.78%46.42%50.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.952.002.0955.56%51.25%50.00%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.01%3.70fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.530%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.17%26.97%27.01%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.463.503.6533.33%28.87%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tranmere Rovers (Local): 26.33%; Swindon Town (Visit): 46.66%; Draw: 27.01%. For Tranmere Rovers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -10.88%E -5.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -2.76%E -0.765%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.28%E -0.340%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -1.41%E -0.385%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 03:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.10%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 14:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.10%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 14:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -11.34%E -5.97%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -16.01%E -8.89%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -2.76%E -0.765%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 03:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -16.01%E -8.89%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -2.76%E -0.765%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 03:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -16.01%E -8.89%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -2.76%E -0.765%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 03:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 14:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -10.88%E -5.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -11.34%E -5.97%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 13:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -10.88%E -5.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-21 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.64%EV -2.48%E -1.19%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.57%EV -6.54%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 14:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.28%EV -6.28%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.87%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.85%EV -9.24%E -2.75%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.54%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -9.94%E -5.15%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.86%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.86%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.86%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.86%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.86%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -2.94%E -1.42%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 14:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -2.94%E -1.42%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 14:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.84%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.08%EV -6.21%E -3.09%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -7.62%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -2.76%E -0.765%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 14:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -8.08%E -4.10%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-21 14:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.49%E -3.09%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-21 14:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -11.81%E -3.52%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.39%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 14:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 14:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.77%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 14:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 14:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -10.88%E -5.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -18.96%E -6.32%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.53% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91% | 0.4% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 14:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.20% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.75% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.50% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.75% | 2.4% | 2026-03-21 14:49 |