Language:English
Notts County v Chesterfield FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Notts County (Local)
Prediction 40.56%2.47fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.22%40.59%40.61%41.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.282.3846.51%43.81%43.86%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Chesterfield FC (Visit)
Prediction 30.02%3.33fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.666%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%30.07%29.91%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.053.053.2835.71%32.74%32.79%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.42%3.40fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.887%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.74%29.35%29.48%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.153.153.3034.72%31.77%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Notts County (Local): 40.56%; Chesterfield FC (Visit): 30.02%; Draw: 29.42%. For Chesterfield FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.28, with an expected value of -1.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -3.47%E -1.46%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -2.93%E -0.887%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-15 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.10%EV -3.87%E -1.63%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -4.40%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.52%EV -3.87%E -1.63%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.15%EV -5.90%E -2.54%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.11%EV -1.52%E -0.463%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.74%EV -5.57%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.28%EV -5.90%E -2.54%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.86%EV -6.02%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.86%EV -7.93%E -2.53%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.90%E -2.54%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -6.32%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-15 18:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.93%E -0.887%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 18:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.93%E -0.887%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-15 13:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-15 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 17:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -7.53%E -3.30%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.51%EV -7.05%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -7.53%E -3.30%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.65%EV -7.53%E -3.30%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.65%EV -7.53%E -3.30%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -5.87%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -2.93%E -0.887%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 18:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 18:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -2.93%E -0.887%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-14 23:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-15 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-15 18:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.34%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-15 18:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.81%E -2.84%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-15 18:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.22%EV -10.77%E -4.90%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -15.93%E -5.69%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.96%EV -15.28%E -5.31%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-05-15 17:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -12.80%E -5.95%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -3.92%E -1.23%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 1.0% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 1.0% | 2026-05-15 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 1.0% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.45% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.45% | 1.4% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.10% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.89% | 1.4% | 2026-05-15 18:55 |