Language:English
Northampton Town v Plymouth Argyle
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Northampton Town (Local)
Prediction 13.61%7.35fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.276%
Kelly +0.319%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.35%13.70%13.45%16.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.736.817.007.5017.45%14.68%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Plymouth Argyle (Visit)
Prediction 68.61%1.46fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -9.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%68.52%68.73%70.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4075.76%73.60%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.78%5.62fair odd
EV +6.69%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.090%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%17.78%17.82%21.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.005.115.006.0025.00%19.57%20.00%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northampton Town (Local): 13.61%; Plymouth Argyle (Visit): 68.61%; Draw: 17.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.11%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV +6.69%E +1.12%K +1.34%G +0.090% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.73I 17.45%NM 16.37%EV -22.02%E -3.84%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.95%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 5.98I 16.72%NM 15.68%EV +6.34%E +1.06%K +1.27%G +0.081% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.36%EV -10.31%E -1.56%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.60%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.04%EV +4.91%E +0.833%K +1.00%G +0.049% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.15%EV -10.18%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.17%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -0.421%E -0.075%K -0.091%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 13:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.15%EV -10.18%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.17%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -0.421%E -0.075%K -0.091%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 13:16 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.13%EV -3.37%E -0.475%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -1.31%E -0.236%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -6.01%E -4.38%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -2.20%E -0.400%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -2.20%E -0.400%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -2.20%E -0.400%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.56%EV -9.44%E -7.15%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32%EV -5.76%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.95%E -2.82%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.95%E -2.82%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +2.07%E +0.276%K +0.319%G +0.007% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.01%E -4.38%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 13:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -1.33%E -0.184%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -1.33%E -0.184%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -18.34%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -18.34%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -14.94%E -2.39%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.21%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-02 10:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.94%E -2.39%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -7.53%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.94%E -2.39%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -7.53%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.31%EV -8.06%E -6.02%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -7.53%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.31%EV -8.06%E -6.02%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -7.53%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -3.95%E -2.82%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 10:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +2.07%E +0.276%K +0.319%G +0.007% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.07%E +0.276%K +0.319%G +0.007% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -8.06%E -6.02%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -8.06%E -6.02%K -23.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 11:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.24%EV -12.90%E -2.02%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.52%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.23%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -18.34%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -18.34%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -18.34%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-02 13:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.54%EV +0.711%E +0.096%K +0.111%G +0.001% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.72%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.74%EV -11.98%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.54%EV +0.711%E +0.096%K +0.111%G +0.001% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.72%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.74%EV -11.98%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV +2.07%E +0.276%K +0.319%G +0.007% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -12.87%E -2.63%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV +2.07%E +0.276%K +0.319%G +0.007% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -12.87%E -2.63%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV +2.07%E +0.276%K +0.319%G +0.007% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -12.87%E -2.63%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -5.32%E -3.86%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -15.54%E -3.27%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -6.69%E -4.92%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -15.54%E -3.27%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -16.42%E -3.49%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -4.73%E -0.676%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -7.38%E -5.47%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -16.42%E -3.49%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -11.54%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.06%EV -8.75%E -6.58%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%EV -28.87%E -7.22%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-02 13:56 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.30% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.30% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |