Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Luton v Stockport County FC

Inicio: 2026-09-02 18:45 UTC

Final: Luton 2–0 Stockport County FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Luton (Local)

Predicción 36.45%2.74momio equitativo
EV -1.59%
Ventaja -0.591%
Kelly -0.938%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.72%36.44%36.53%38.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.382.572.552.7042.02%38.84%39.22%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Stockport County FC (Visitante)

Predicción 38.07%2.63momio equitativo
EV -2.16%
Ventaja -0.841%
Kelly -1.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.80%38.11%38.07%39.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.432.432.5743.48%41.19%41.15%38.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.48%3.92momio equitativo
EV +1.94%
Ventaja +0.484%
Kelly +0.645%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.78%25.45%25.39%26.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.603.604.0029.41%27.80%27.78%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Luton (Local): 36.45%; Stockport County FC (Visitante): 38.07%; Empate: 25.48%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.92. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.94%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.51%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.75%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV +1.94%E +0.484%K +0.645%G +0.012%4.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -3.16%E -0.832%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 18:40
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.16%E -0.832%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:30
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 18:30
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.78%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 18:35
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.24%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:30
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.46%EV -13.26%E -5.57%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76%EV -12.44%E -5.41%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.76%EV -4.51%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.48%EV -2.16%E -0.841%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.76%EV -4.69%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 18:40
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 18:30
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:38
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -12.53%E -5.22%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 18:40
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.20%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.92%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-02 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.46%EV -3.05%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -6.35%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:40
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 18:24
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.51%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:38
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 18:40
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.89%EV -7.79%E -3.08%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.04%EV -4.06%E -1.61%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -8.77%E -2.45%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -1.59%E -0.591%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -7.49%E -3.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.61%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.91%EV -5.59%E -2.25%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.73%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.61%EV -10.16%E -4.30%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -9.53%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 18:35
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -4.83%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.63%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 18:30
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 18:40
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 17:10
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -12.08%E -3.50%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 18:30
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -7.06%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -6.73%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -12.08%E -3.50%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 18:28
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -10.54%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 18:05
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -11.30%E -4.85%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -5.24%E -2.02%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -11.30%E -4.85%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.93%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-09-02 18:40
Matchbook◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.93%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-09-02 18:40
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-09-02 18:40