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Watford v Peterborough United

2026-08-25 15:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Watford (Local)

Prediction 62.57%1.60fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -4.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.64%62.57%62.49%63.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.491.5669.44%66.95%67.11%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Peterborough United (Visit)

Prediction 16.52%6.05fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.430%
Kelly -0.517%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.95%16.52%16.59%17.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.475.685.675.9018.28%17.61%17.62%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.91%4.78fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -0.830%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.23%20.91%20.92%21.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.364.534.554.6022.94%22.06%21.98%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Watford (Local): 62.57%; Peterborough United (Visit): 16.52%; Draw: 20.91%. For Watford (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.56, with an expected value of -2.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.82%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.22%EV -7.49%E -1.34%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -3.82%E -0.830%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-11 18:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.49%EV -3.64%E -2.36%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.59%EV -4.19%E -0.722%K -0.872%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.92%EV -3.82%E -0.830%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-11 18:05
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.64%EV -5.52%E -3.65%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.47I 18.28%NM 17.02%EV -9.64%E -1.76%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.35%EV -8.84%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-11 16:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -6.14%E -4.09%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.01%E -0.872%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-11 15:09
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.59%EV -7.39%E -5.00%K -15.40%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -2.54%E -0.430%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -3.82%E -0.830%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-11 15:10
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.59%EV -7.39%E -5.00%K -15.40%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -2.54%E -0.430%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -3.82%E -0.830%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-11 15:09
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.90%E -6.87%K -22.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.14%E -1.66%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-11 15:09
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.90%E -6.87%K -22.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.14%E -1.66%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-11 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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