Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Watford v Peterborough United

Início: 2026-08-25 18:45 UTC

Final: Watford 1–5 Peterborough United

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Watford (Local)

Previsão 43.40%2.30odd justa
EV -1.92%
Vantagem -0.848%
Kelly -1.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.32%43.54%43.43%46.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.932.132.142.2651.81%46.92%46.73%44.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Peterborough United (Visitante)

Previsão 30.38%3.29odd justa
EV +0.261%
Vantagem +0.079%
Kelly +0.113%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.48%30.26%30.40%31.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.063.103.3034.48%32.70%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.22%3.81odd justa
EV -0.372%
Vantagem -0.098%
Kelly -0.133%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.92%26.20%26.17%27.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.533.603.8030.30%28.30%27.78%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Watford (Local): 43.40%; Peterborough United (Visitante): 30.38%; Empate: 26.22%. Para Peterborough United (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.29. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.261%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.98%EV -16.24%E -8.41%K -17.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV +0.261%E +0.079%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -6.93%E -1.95%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-25 18:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.36%EV -3.65%E -1.65%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.90%EV -2.17%E -0.674%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-25 18:39
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.76%EV -3.08%E -0.966%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.08%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 18:35
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.17%EV -4.52%E -2.05%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -5.21%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 18:28
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.17%EV -4.52%E -2.05%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -5.21%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 18:29
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -1.68%E -0.449%K -0.612%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:24
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.52%E -2.05%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-25 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:29
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:28
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:38
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -7.12%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:39
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-25 18:23
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -11.03%E -5.38%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:19
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.59%EV -1.92%E -0.848%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -6.42%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.16%EV -3.52%E -0.956%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-25 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -2.35%E -1.04%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 18:38
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -2.35%E -1.04%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.04%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -0.372%E -0.098%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:24
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -4.52%E -2.05%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:30
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -7.33%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.93%E -1.95%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-25 18:34
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.62%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.93%E -1.95%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 18:30
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.25%EV -7.99%E -3.77%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-25 18:39
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-25 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-25 18:29
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.48%E -4.09%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-25 18:34
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.48%E -4.09%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-25 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.48%E -4.09%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-25 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.85%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.48%E -4.09%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-25 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.97%EV -12.33%E -6.10%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.91%EV -9.77%E -3.29%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-25 18:30
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -10.37%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-25 18:30
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -10.37%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-25 18:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -12.33%E -6.10%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -10.37%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -12.33%E -6.10%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -10.37%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -12.33%E -6.10%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -10.37%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -11.03%E -5.38%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -11.89%E -4.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-25 18:29
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.89%E -4.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.48%E -4.09%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-25 18:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40%1.0%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-08-25 18:39
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-08-25 18:39