Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester United v Brighton and Hove Albion

2026-09-16 19:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester United (Local)

Prediction 52.42%1.91fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.19%52.26%52.47%53.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.761.8460.24%56.86%56.82%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit)

Prediction 23.92%4.18fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.770%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%24.23%23.84%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.893.904.0529.41%25.73%25.64%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.66%4.23fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.262%
Kelly -0.344%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.41%23.51%23.69%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.893.904.1827.40%25.72%25.64%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manchester United (Local): 52.42%; Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit): 23.92%; Draw: 23.66%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.18, with an expected value of -1.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.54%EV -3.55%E -1.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -1.80%E -0.435%K -0.573%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 14:05
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.90%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -4.60%E -2.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.80%EV -3.12%E -0.770%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.23%EV -1.80%E -0.435%K -0.573%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 14:00
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.92%EV -4.60%E -2.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.47%EV -11.25%E -3.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.61%EV -1.09%E -0.262%K -0.344%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 13:59
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 14:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 14:40
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 14:45
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -9.10%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -11.27%E -3.00%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:00
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -6.70%E -3.76%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.22%E -4.08%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 15:50
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:44
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:44
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:50
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -7.75%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 17:15
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 13:59
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -7.72%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.09%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 15:50
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.56%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.06%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.56%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.06%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.56%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.06%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 13:59
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -8.27%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -18.67%E -5.49%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -5.35%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 14:00
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.66%EV -9.32%E -5.39%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -10.09%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 14:05
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.66%EV -9.32%E -5.39%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -10.09%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 14:05
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -9.32%E -5.39%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.10%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 15:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%EV -11.94%E -7.11%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.10%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%EV -11.94%E -7.11%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.10%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%EV -11.94%E -7.11%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.10%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -12.45%E -3.37%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 16:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.23%EV -11.94%E -7.11%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -13.88%E -3.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -11.27%E -3.00%K -4.10%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-03 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.02%EV -12.99%E -7.82%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.32%EV -15.08%E -4.25%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.66%EV -13.63%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-03 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-09-03 14:00