Language:English
Manchester United v Brighton and Hove Albion
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manchester United (Local)
Prediction 51.75%1.93fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.886%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.09%51.75%51.89%53.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.801.801.9060.61%55.58%55.56%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit)
Prediction 24.72%4.05fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.283%
Kelly -0.377%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.68%24.77%24.67%26.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.754.0028.57%26.68%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.358%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%23.48%23.44%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.943.924.2027.40%25.39%25.48%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester United (Local): 51.75%; Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit): 24.72%; Draw: 23.54%. For Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -1.68%E -0.886%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV -3.60%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -2.72%E -1.45%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -9.38%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.79%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.58%EV -2.61%E -0.663%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -2.37%E -0.599%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.86%EV -4.68%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -1.13%E -0.283%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -1.13%E -0.283%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.13%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -1.62%E -0.408%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.64%EV -3.97%E -0.973%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.13%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -1.62%E -0.408%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.64%EV -3.97%E -0.973%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -4.84%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-16 18:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-16 18:48 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-16 18:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -1.13%E -0.283%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-16 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.68%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -12.25%E -3.45%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.34%E -3.50%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.72%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -2.61%E -0.663%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.20%EV -3.73%E -0.913%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-16 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.60%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-16 18:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -7.89%E -4.43%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-16 18:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.38%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.41%EV -8.93%E -5.07%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.38%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.38%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-16 18:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.49%E -3.85%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.49%E -3.85%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 18:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.31%EV -11.00%E -6.39%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%EV -14.09%E -3.86%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -14.62%E -8.86%K -22.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68% | 0.6% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54% | 1.2% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54% | 1.2% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 1.4% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |