Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Manchester United v Brighton and Hove Albion

Início: 2026-09-16 19:00 UTC

Final: Manchester United 2–3 Brighton and Hove Albion

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Manchester United (Local)

Previsão 51.75%1.93odd justa
EV -1.68%
Vantagem -0.886%
Kelly -1.87%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.09%51.75%51.89%53.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.651.801.801.9060.61%55.58%55.56%52.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Brighton and Hove Albion (Visitante)

Previsão 24.72%4.05odd justa
EV -1.13%
Vantagem -0.283%
Kelly -0.377%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.68%24.77%24.67%26.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.753.754.0028.57%26.68%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.54%4.25odd justa
EV -1.15%
Vantagem -0.273%
Kelly -0.358%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.38%23.48%23.44%24.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.653.943.924.2027.40%25.39%25.48%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Manchester United (Local): 51.75%; Brighton and Hove Albion (Visitante): 24.72%; Empate: 23.54%. Para Brighton and Hove Albion (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.05. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 4.00, com valor esperado de -1.13%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -1.68%E -0.886%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV -3.60%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-16 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -2.72%E -1.45%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -9.38%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.79%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.58%EV -2.61%E -0.663%K -0.889%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-16 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -2.37%E -0.599%K -0.802%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.86%EV -4.68%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-16 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -1.13%E -0.283%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-16 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -1.13%E -0.283%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-16 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.13%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -1.62%E -0.408%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.64%EV -3.97%E -0.973%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-16 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.13%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -1.62%E -0.408%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.64%EV -3.97%E -0.973%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-16 18:35
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -4.84%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 18:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-16 18:48
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -1.13%E -0.283%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-16 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 18:50
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 18:50
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 18:40
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.68%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -12.25%E -3.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.34%E -3.50%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-16 18:55
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.72%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -2.61%E -0.663%K -0.889%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.20%EV -3.73%E -0.913%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 18:55
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 18:55
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.358%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-16 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.60%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 18:50
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 18:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 18:44
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-16 18:35
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 18:45
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 18:45
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -7.89%E -4.43%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 18:45
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 18:45
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.38%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.41%EV -8.93%E -5.07%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-16 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.38%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-16 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.38%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-16 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-16 18:50
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-16 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-16 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-16 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.44%E -5.40%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.49%E -3.85%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-16 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.49%E -3.85%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-16 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.31%EV -11.00%E -6.39%K -15.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%EV -14.09%E -3.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-16 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -14.62%E -8.86%K -22.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 18:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.6%2026-09-16 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-09-16 18:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-09-16 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%1.4%2026-09-16 18:56