The School of Odds
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Coventry City v Aston Villa

2026-09-16 19:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coventry City (Local)

Prediction 31.31%3.19fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.953%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.76%31.45%31.23%32.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.943.003.1037.74%33.96%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aston Villa (Visit)

Prediction 42.00%2.38fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.22%41.94%41.98%42.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.232.3148.78%45.21%44.94%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.98%26.61%26.79%27.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.403.6031.25%29.15%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Coventry City (Local): 31.31%; Aston Villa (Visit): 42.00%; Draw: 26.69%. For Coventry City (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.10, with an expected value of -2.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -2.95%E -0.953%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.05%EV -3.81%E -1.67%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.90%EV -4.44%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 18:54
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.31%EV -3.58%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.75%EV -2.97%E -1.29%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -4.44%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 18:59
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.76%EV -3.58%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.10%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.14%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:00
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:00
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.91%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 14:40
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.91%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 15:50
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:40
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:44
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:44
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 16:50
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.49%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 17:15
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 14:00
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 13:59
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 14:05
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.08%E -2.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 16:55
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.21%E -3.18%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.21%E -3.18%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.21%E -3.18%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 15:34
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.21%E -3.18%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 15:34
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.84%E -3.42%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 14:00
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.84%E -3.42%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -9.84%E -3.42%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.79%E -5.62%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -10.78%E -3.78%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -10.78%E -3.78%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.59%E -3.45%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.78%E -3.78%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -9.69%E -4.51%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -14.59%E -4.56%K -6.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-03 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.78%E -3.78%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -9.69%E -4.51%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -14.59%E -4.56%K -6.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-03 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.78%E -3.78%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -9.69%E -4.51%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -14.59%E -4.56%K -6.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-03 16:39
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.34%E -4.41%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.69%E -4.51%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.38%EV -15.48%E -5.73%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.64%EV -13.89%E -6.78%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-03 13:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.55%EV -17.04%E -6.43%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.08%EV -13.89%E -6.78%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-03 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-09-03 14:00