Language:English
Coventry City v Aston Villa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Coventry City (Local)
Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV +3.83%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.32%27.67%27.62%29.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.303.7532.26%29.83%30.30%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aston Villa (Visit)
Prediction 46.02%2.17fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%46.08%46.05%47.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.012.002.1353.19%49.87%50.00%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.29%3.80fair odd
EV +3.84%
Edge +0.972%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%26.25%26.33%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.593.603.9530.77%27.88%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coventry City (Local): 27.69%; Aston Villa (Visit): 46.02%; Draw: 26.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV +3.83%E +1.02%K +1.39%G +0.053% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.71%EV -8.41%E -4.23%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.47%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -0.321%E -0.089%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -8.41%E -4.23%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.73%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -0.321%E -0.089%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -8.41%E -4.23%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.73%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -0.321%E -0.089%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -9.33%E -4.74%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.99%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%EV -1.71%E -0.480%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76%EV +3.84%E +0.972%K +1.30%G +0.050% | 2.3% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%EV -1.71%E -0.480%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76%EV +3.84%E +0.972%K +1.30%G +0.050% | 2.3% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.43%EV -2.26%E -0.640%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.89%EV -2.89%E -1.37%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.68%EV -4.57%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.15%EV -2.54%E -0.720%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.94%EV -4.27%E -2.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.92%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -1.97%E -0.925%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -7.99%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-16 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -4.47%E -1.30%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.34%EV -4.27%E -2.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -9.31%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-16 18:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -0.105%E -0.028%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.99%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -10.25%E -5.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.73%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.09%EV -6.57%E -3.24%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.44%EV -9.79%E -5.00%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.44%EV -9.79%E -5.00%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.44%EV -9.79%E -5.00%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.44%EV -9.79%E -5.00%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -3.35%E -1.60%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -2.73%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.29%EV -4.27%E -2.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 18:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.12%EV -9.33%E -4.74%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.68%EV -8.87%E -4.48%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -4.05%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-16 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 18:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18%EV -10.72%E -5.52%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -4.05%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18%EV -10.72%E -5.52%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -4.05%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18%EV -10.72%E -5.52%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -4.05%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -13.25%E -4.01%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -14.56%E -4.48%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -14.56%E -4.48%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -14.56%E -4.48%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -5.65%E -2.76%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.95%EV -11.18%E -5.79%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.95%EV -11.18%E -5.79%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -10.25%E -5.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -10.25%E -5.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.26%EV -11.18%E -5.79%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -3.35%E -1.60%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-16 18:26 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -3.35%E -1.60%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-16 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.91%EV -11.18%E -5.79%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -4.05%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-16 18:52 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.25%E -5.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-16 18:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -13.48%E -7.17%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -7.99%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.17%E -4.57%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -7.95%E -3.98%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-16 18:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.51% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.35% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 0.8% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.35% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 0.8% | 2026-09-16 18:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.19% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36% | 1.2% | 2026-09-16 18:55 |