The School of Odds

Cardiff City v Swindon Town

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cardiff City (Local)

Prediction 64.49%1.55fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -9.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.82%64.34%64.47%65.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.351.431.431.4874%70%70%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Swindon Town (Visit)

Prediction 14.97%6.68fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.495%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.04%15.02%15.00%17.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.905.916.006.5020%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.54%4.87fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%20.65%20.52%21.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.434.504.6025%23%22%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.55%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.55%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 21:55
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -4.55%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -6.46%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 02:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 63.88%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -6.46%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 21:55
Neds1.46I 68.49%NM 63.88%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -6.46%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 21:55
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -12.69%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-25 16:25
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -12.69%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-25 16:25
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 02:59
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 09:44
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-16 00:15
Pinnacle1.44I 69.44%NM 64.61%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.32I 15.82%NM 14.72%EV -5.41%E -0.857%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 14:09
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-14 04:50
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 63.76%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 10:39
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 04:50
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 04:55
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 04:54
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 00:10
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 14:32
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-16 14:05
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 14:39
LowVig.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 63.00%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -14.69%E -2.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-13 17:30
BetOnline.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 63.00%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -14.69%E -2.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-13 17:30
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-15 08:44
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-26 14:29
betano_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 14:09
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 14:10
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-23 14:35
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 62.87%EV -10.36%E -7.45%K -26.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.81%EV -22.18%E -4.26%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.32%EV -11.66%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-23 09:44
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 64.05%EV -12.29%E -9.04%K -34.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.84%EV -17.69%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -11.05%E -2.55%K -3.32%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-20 12:39
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 61.82%EV -12.29%E -9.04%K -34.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.16%EV -26.67%E -5.44%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.02%EV -17.83%E -4.46%K -5.94%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-23 09:44
NetBet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 64.82%EV -12.94%E -9.58%K -36.97%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.83%EV -11.70%E -1.98%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.35%EV -11.66%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 09:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.13%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%5.0%2026-07-25 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%9.2%2026-07-25 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-23 21:25