Language:English
Cardiff City v Swindon Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cardiff City (Local)
Prediction 72.11%1.39fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -12.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.63%71.98%72.02%74.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.291.301.3382.64%77.48%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Swindon Town (Visit)
Prediction 11.08%9.02fair odd
EV +5.85%
Edge +0.613%
Kelly +0.685%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 9.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.92%11.09%11.08%12.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.168.009.5514.29%12.25%12.50%10.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.81%5.95fair odd
EV +0.844%
Edge +0.141%
Kelly +0.169%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.37%16.93%16.89%19.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.425.506.0021.05%18.46%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cardiff City (Local): 72.11%; Swindon Town (Visit): 11.08%; Draw: 16.81%. For Swindon Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.02. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.02%EV -7.70%E -6.02%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 9.55I 10.47%NM 9.92%EV +5.85%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV -0.837%E -0.142%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.52%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV +5.30%E +0.558%K +0.623%G +0.033% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -3.36%E -0.584%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.52%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV +5.30%E +0.558%K +0.623%G +0.033% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -3.36%E -0.584%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.46%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.03%EV +3.08%E +0.331%K +0.371%G +0.011% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -5.04%E -0.892%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -0.243%E -0.027%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -4.20%E -0.737%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -2.46%E -0.280%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -16.80%E -3.39%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -2.46%E -0.280%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -16.80%E -3.39%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.51%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -3.01%E -0.344%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -0.837%E -0.142%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV +0.844%E +0.141%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -7.70%E -6.02%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 8.37I 11.95%NM 11.17%EV -7.23%E -0.863%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.91I 16.92%NM 15.81%EV -0.669%E -0.113%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.49%EV -8.56%E -1.04%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.17%EV -12.75%E -10.54%K -60.71%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.73%EV -8.56%E -1.04%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.61%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.23%EV -10.22%E -1.26%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -10.92%E -2.06%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.61%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.23%EV -10.22%E -1.26%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -10.92%E -2.06%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.78%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -0.837%E -0.142%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -20.17%E -4.25%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -12.03%E -9.86%K -54.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -14.10%E -1.82%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -9.24%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -14.10%E -1.82%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -9.24%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -5.54%E -4.23%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 13:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.10%EV -5.54%E -4.23%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -12.60%E -2.42%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.54%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.33%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.01%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -19.64%E -2.71%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -5.88%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.59%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -22.41%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -9.24%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.44% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.59% | 0.3% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
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