Cardiff City v Swindon Town

2026-08-08 16:00 — EFL Cup

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Cardiff City (Local)

Odds

1.3673.53%Min

1.4270.46%Mean

1.4369.93%Median

1.4568.97%Max

Consensus probabilities

63.19%1.583Min

65.51%1.526Max

64.36%1.554Mean

64.38%1.553Median

64.38%1.553IQM

64.45%1.552Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.45 under the IQM model: 64.38%

EV -6.66%Edge -4.59%Kelly -14.79%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Swindon Town (Visit)

Odds

5.4018.52%Min

5.7117.51%Mean

5.4018.52%Median

6.5015.38%Max

Consensus probabilities

14.11%7.087Min

16.73%5.976Max

15.50%6.451Mean

15.48%6.459Median

15.48%6.459IQM

15.41%6.488Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.50 under the IQM model: 15.48%

EV +0.632%Edge +0.097%Kelly +0.115%Growth +0.001%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

4.3323.09%Min

4.5222.15%Mean

4.5022.22%Median

4.7521.05%Max

Consensus probabilities

19.31%5.178Min

20.49%4.880Max

20.14%4.966Mean

20.14%4.965Median

20.14%4.965IQM

20.14%4.965Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.75 under the IQM model: 20.14%

EV -4.32%Edge -0.910%Kelly -1.15%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Cardiff City (Local)	Swindon Town (Visit) ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	1.47I 68.03% NM 65.48%EV -5.37% E -3.65% K -11.42% G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81% NM 14.26%EV +4.50% E +0.667% K +0.783% G +0.035%	4.75I 21.05% NM 20.26%EV -4.32% E -0.910% K -1.15% G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.01%EV -6.66% E -4.59% K -14.79% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.50%EV +0.632% E +0.097% K +0.115% G +0.001%	4.60I 21.74% NM 20.49%EV -7.34% E -1.60% K -2.04% G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-30 02:59
FanDuel	1.42I 70.42% NM 65.48%EV -8.59% E -6.05% K -20.45% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.31%EV +0.632% E +0.097% K +0.115% G +0.001%	4.60I 21.74% NM 20.21%EV -7.34% E -1.60% K -2.04% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-26 14:39
SportsBet	1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV +0.632% E +0.097% K +0.115% G +0.001%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power	1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV +0.632% E +0.097% K +0.115% G +0.001%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet	1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV +0.632% E +0.097% K +0.115% G +0.001%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-06-26 14:29
1xBet	1.44I 69.44% NM 65.02%EV -7.30% E -5.07% K -16.59% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.63%EV -0.916% E -0.143% K -0.170% G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74% NM 20.35%EV -7.34% E -1.60% K -2.04% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-26 18:39
BoyleSports	1.36I 73.53% NM 64.90%EV -12.45% E -9.15% K -34.58% G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67% NM 14.71%EV -7.11% E -1.18% K -1.42% G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09% NM 20.39%EV -12.78% E -2.95% K -3.84% G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-06-27 15:10
LeoVegas	1.42I 70.42% NM 64.60%EV -8.59% E -6.05% K -20.45% G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54% NM 16.09%EV -11.75% E -2.06% K -2.50% G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.31%EV -4.32% E -0.910% K -1.15% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-02 10:20
William Hill	1.40I 71.43% NM 63.87%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18% NM 16.26%EV -14.85% E -2.70% K -3.30% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 19.87%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	11.8%	2026-06-30 14:00
888sport	1.40I 71.43% NM 63.87%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18% NM 16.26%EV -14.85% E -2.70% K -3.30% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 19.87%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	11.8%	2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)	1.40I 71.43% NM 63.87%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18% NM 16.26%EV -14.85% E -2.70% K -3.30% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 19.87%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	11.8%	2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)	1.40I 71.43% NM 63.87%EV -9.87% E -7.05% K -24.69% G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18% NM 16.26%EV -14.85% E -2.70% K -3.30% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 19.87%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	11.8%	2026-06-30 14:19
BetRivers	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet	1.43I 69.93% NM 63.19%EV -7.94% E -5.55% K -18.47% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.73%EV -16.40% E -3.04% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.08%EV -9.36% E -2.08% K -2.67% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-30 08:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Cardiff City (Local)	Swindon Town (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39