Idioma:Español
Cardiff City v Swindon Town
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Cardiff City (Local)
Predicción 72.11%1.39momio equitativo
EV -4.10%
Ventaja -3.08%
Kelly -12.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.63%71.98%72.02%74.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.211.291.301.3382.64%77.48%76.92%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Swindon Town (Visitante)
Predicción 11.08%9.02momio equitativo
EV +5.85%
Ventaja +0.613%
Kelly +0.685%
Crecimiento +0.040%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.92%11.09%11.08%12.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.168.009.5514.29%12.25%12.50%10.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 16.81%5.95momio equitativo
EV +0.844%
Ventaja +0.141%
Kelly +0.169%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.37%16.93%16.89%19.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.425.506.0021.05%18.46%18.18%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cardiff City (Local): 72.11%; Swindon Town (Visitante): 11.08%; Empate: 16.81%. Para Swindon Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 9.02. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.85%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.02%EV -7.70%E -6.02%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 9.55I 10.47%NM 9.92%EV +5.85%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV -0.837%E -0.142%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.52%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV +5.30%E +0.558%K +0.623%G +0.033% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -3.36%E -0.584%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.52%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV +5.30%E +0.558%K +0.623%G +0.033% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -3.36%E -0.584%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.46%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.03%EV +3.08%E +0.331%K +0.371%G +0.011% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -5.04%E -0.892%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -0.243%E -0.027%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -4.20%E -0.737%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -2.46%E -0.280%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -16.80%E -3.39%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -2.46%E -0.280%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -16.80%E -3.39%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.51%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -3.01%E -0.344%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -0.837%E -0.142%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV +0.844%E +0.141%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.79%E -0.681%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -7.70%E -6.02%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 8.37I 11.95%NM 11.17%EV -7.23%E -0.863%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.91I 16.92%NM 15.81%EV -0.669%E -0.113%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.49%EV -8.56%E -1.04%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.17%EV -12.75%E -10.54%K -60.71%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.73%EV -8.56%E -1.04%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.61%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.23%EV -10.22%E -1.26%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -10.92%E -2.06%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.61%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.23%EV -10.22%E -1.26%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -10.92%E -2.06%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.10%E -3.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.78%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -0.837%E -0.142%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -20.17%E -4.25%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -12.03%E -9.86%K -54.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -11.33%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -14.10%E -1.82%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -9.24%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -4.82%E -3.65%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -14.10%E -1.82%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -9.24%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -5.54%E -4.23%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.26%E -4.81%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -7.56%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 13:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.10%EV -5.54%E -4.23%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -12.60%E -2.42%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.54%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.33%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.86%E -7.89%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -16.87%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -11.76%E -2.24%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.01%EV -6.98%E -5.41%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -19.64%E -2.71%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -5.88%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.59%EV -8.42%E -6.63%K -31.19%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -22.41%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -9.24%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.44% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.59% | 0.3% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |