La escuela de los momios

Cardiff City v Swindon Town

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cardiff City (Local)

Predicción 64.49%1.55momio equitativo
EV -4.55%
Ventaja -3.08%
Kelly -9.49%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.82%64.34%64.47%65.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.351.431.431.4874.07%70.06%69.93%67.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Swindon Town (Visitante)

Predicción 14.97%6.68momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -0.418%
Kelly -0.495%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.04%15.02%15.00%17.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.916.006.5020.41%16.91%16.67%15.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.54%4.87momio equitativo
EV -5.50%
Ventaja -1.20%
Kelly -1.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.03%20.65%20.52%21.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.434.504.6025.00%22.56%22.22%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.55%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.55%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 21:55
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -4.55%E -3.08%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -6.46%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 02:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 63.88%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -6.46%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 21:55
Neds1.46I 68.49%NM 63.88%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -6.46%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 21:55
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -12.69%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 03:39
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -5.84%E -4.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -12.69%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 03:39
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 02:59
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -6.49%E -4.48%K -14.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 09:44
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-16 00:15
Pinnacle1.44I 69.44%NM 64.61%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.32I 15.82%NM 14.72%EV -5.41%E -0.857%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 14:09
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-14 04:50
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 63.76%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 10:39
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 04:50
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 04:55
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 04:54
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -4.22%E -0.659%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 00:10
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 14:32
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.78%E -5.44%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -19.18%E -3.55%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-16 14:05
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 14:39
LowVig.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 63.00%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -14.69%E -2.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-13 17:30
BetOnline.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 63.00%EV -8.42%E -5.93%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -14.69%E -2.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -13.72%E -3.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-13 17:30
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.50%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-15 08:44
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-26 14:29
betano_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 14:09
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.72%E -0.418%K -0.495%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.61%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 14:10
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -10.20%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -7.55%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-23 14:35
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 62.87%EV -10.36%E -7.45%K -26.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.81%EV -22.18%E -4.26%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.32%EV -11.66%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-23 09:44
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 64.05%EV -12.29%E -9.04%K -34.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.84%EV -17.69%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -11.05%E -2.55%K -3.32%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-20 12:39
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 61.82%EV -12.29%E -9.04%K -34.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.16%EV -26.67%E -5.44%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.02%EV -17.83%E -4.46%K -5.94%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-23 09:44
NetBet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 64.82%EV -12.94%E -9.58%K -36.97%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.83%EV -11.70%E -1.98%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.35%EV -11.66%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 09:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%9.2%2026-07-26 03:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%9.2%2026-07-26 04:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.62%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%9.2%2026-07-26 04:05