Language:English
Arsenal v Manchester City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arsenal (Local)
Prediction 42.06%2.38fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.855%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.34%42.09%42.01%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.252.3347.62%45.14%44.44%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Manchester City (Visit)
Prediction 30.07%3.33fair odd
EV +3.75%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.98%30.05%30.18%31.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.173.123.4535.71%31.54%32.05%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.86%3.59fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.306%
Kelly -0.425%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.89%27.86%27.80%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.353.403.5534.72%29.87%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arsenal (Local): 42.06%; Manchester City (Visit): 30.07%; Draw: 27.86%. For Manchester City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.40%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV +3.75%E +1.09%K +1.53%G +0.057% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.40%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV +3.75%E +1.09%K +1.53%G +0.057% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-22 16:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.63%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV +2.25%E +0.661%K +0.937%G +0.021% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.66%E -1.99%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.63%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV +2.25%E +0.661%K +0.937%G +0.021% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.66%E -1.99%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 16:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.63%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV +2.25%E +0.661%K +0.937%G +0.021% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.66%E -1.99%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 16:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV +0.745%E +0.222%K +0.317%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.02%EV -4.94%E -2.18%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.20%EV +0.143%E +0.043%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.78%EV -2.48%E -0.708%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-22 16:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.30%EV -2.83%E -1.23%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%EV -0.759%E -0.230%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.08%EV -3.04%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-22 16:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.41%EV -4.10%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.57%EV -1.66%E -0.508%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 16:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.41%EV -4.10%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.57%EV -1.66%E -0.508%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 16:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24%EV -2.41%E -1.04%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%EV -2.26%E -0.696%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61%EV -1.09%E -0.306%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -2.26%E -0.696%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.84%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -2.26%E -0.696%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.84%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.99%E -0.855%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%EV -2.86%E -0.887%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.24%EV -4.15%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-22 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.97%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.26%EV -6.17%E -1.98%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 15:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 15:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 15:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 15:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-22 15:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-22 15:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.44%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 15:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.05%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.52%EV -4.10%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.52%EV -4.10%E -1.80%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -2.48%E -0.708%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-22 15:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -9.44%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.03%EV -8.72%E -4.02%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -9.44%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 16:23 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -9.44%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -3.87%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 15:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.84%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.62%E -4.39%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-22 16:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.26%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 16:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -15.80%E -5.64%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -19.75%E -6.86%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-03-22 16:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.98% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.27% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.75% | 0.1% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.18% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.65% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.18% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.65% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.18% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.65% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 16:25 |