The School of OddsWatford v Southampton
Head to Head
Option 1: Watford (Local)
Odds
3.0033.33%Min
3.2330.97%Mean
3.2031.25%Median
3.4528.99%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.39%3.651Min
29.29%3.414Max
28.06%3.563Mean
28.07%3.562Median
28.06%3.564IQM
28.10%3.559Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.45 under the IQM model: 28.06%
EV -3.20%Edge -0.927%Kelly -1.31%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Southampton (Visit)
Odds
1.8853.19%Min
2.0149.80%Mean
1.9950.25%Median
2.1047.62%Max
Consensus probabilities
44.44%2.250Min
45.65%2.191Max
45.17%2.214Mean
45.09%2.218Median
45.17%2.214IQM
45.16%2.214Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.10 under the IQM model: 45.17%
EV -5.14%Edge -2.45%Kelly -4.67%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.2031.25%Min
3.4329.16%Mean
3.4029.41%Median
3.7526.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.38%3.940Min
27.28%3.665Max
26.76%3.737Mean
26.83%3.727Median
26.77%3.735IQM
26.74%3.740Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.75 under the IQM model: 26.77%
EV +0.392%Edge +0.105%Kelly +0.143%Growth +0.001%
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Watford (Local) | Southampton (Visit) | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betfred_uk | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.29%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 45.33%EV -5.14% E -2.45% K -4.67% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.38%EV +0.392% E +0.105% K +0.143% G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| SportsBet | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.87%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 45.37%EV -5.14% E -2.45% K -4.67% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.75%EV -0.946% E -0.256% K -0.350% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| FanDuel | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.67%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 45.05%EV -5.14% E -2.45% K -4.67% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.28%EV -3.62% E -1.01% K -1.39% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.98%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 44.85%EV -5.14% E -2.45% K -4.67% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.16%EV -3.62% E -1.01% K -1.39% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 02:59 |
| Sky Bet | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.67%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 45.45%EV -7.40% E -3.61% K -7.05% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.88%EV -3.62% E -1.01% K -1.39% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.45I 28.99% NM 27.60%EV -3.20% E -0.927% K -1.31% G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85% NM 45.57%EV -5.59% E -2.68% K -5.13% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.83%EV -4.96% E -1.40% K -1.95% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 22:10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.33I 30.03% NM 28.28%EV -6.57% E -1.97% K -2.82% G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85% NM 45.05%EV -5.59% E -2.68% K -5.13% G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33% NM 26.67%EV -5.50% E -1.56% K -2.17% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| DraftKings | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.46%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 44.72%EV -5.14% E -2.45% K -4.67% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.83%EV -6.30% E -1.80% K -2.52% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 00:19 |
| 1xBet | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.39%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85% NM 44.83%EV -5.59% E -2.68% K -5.13% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.77%EV -6.30% E -1.80% K -2.52% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-02 08:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.27%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31% NM 45.07%EV -6.50% E -3.14% K -6.07% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.66%EV -6.30% E -1.80% K -2.52% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 08:20 |
| Paddy Power | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.46%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.53%EV -9.66% E -4.83% K -9.66% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.02%EV -6.30% E -1.80% K -2.52% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-25 21:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.93%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 44.96%EV -7.40% E -3.61% K -7.05% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.11%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-26 14:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.62%EV -7.41% E -2.24% K -3.22% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.57%EV -9.66% E -4.83% K -9.66% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.81%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.11%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51% NM 45.43%EV -10.56% E -5.33% K -10.78% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.46%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.11%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51% NM 45.43%EV -10.56% E -5.33% K -10.78% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.46%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| Unibet | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.11%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51% NM 45.43%EV -10.56% E -5.33% K -10.78% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.46%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-30 06:49 |
| Bally Bet | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 05:59 |
| betPARX | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 05:59 |
| LeoVegas | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:09 |
| Grosvenor | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| Casumo | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:19 |
| TABtouch | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 06:30 |
| BetRivers | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -10.21% E -3.19% K -4.64% G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.56%EV -11.01% E -5.59% K -11.35% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.40%EV -8.98% E -2.64% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-30 14:40 |
| William Hill | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.70%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.02%EV -9.66% E -4.83% K -9.66% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.28%EV -11.65% E -3.53% K -5.07% G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-26 10:29 |
| 888sport | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.70%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.02%EV -9.66% E -4.83% K -9.66% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.28%EV -11.65% E -3.53% K -5.07% G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-26 12:09 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.70%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.02%EV -9.66% E -4.83% K -9.66% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.28%EV -11.65% E -3.53% K -5.07% G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-26 12:09 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.70%EV -8.81% E -2.71% K -3.92% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.02%EV -9.66% E -4.83% K -9.66% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.28%EV -11.65% E -3.53% K -5.07% G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-26 12:19 |
| BoyleSports | 3.00I 33.33% NM 28.89%EV -15.83% E -5.28% K -7.91% G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28% NM 44.44%EV -11.92% E -6.11% K -12.54% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 26.67%EV -12.99% E -4.00% K -5.77% G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-07-04 10:05 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.15I 31.75% NM 27.39%EV -11.62% E -3.69% K -5.40% G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91% NM 45.65%EV -14.63% E -7.74% K -16.44% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 26.96%EV -14.33% E -4.48% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.00I 33.33% NM 28.30%EV -15.83% E -5.28% K -7.91% G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19% NM 45.16%EV -15.08% E -8.02% K -17.14% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 26.53%EV -14.33% E -4.48% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-06-25 21:19 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.07I 32.57% NM 27.59%EV -13.86% E -4.52% K -6.70% G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76% NM 45.53%EV -15.98% E -8.59% K -18.58% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 26.88%EV -15.67% E -4.97% K -7.29% G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-06-25 21:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Watford (Local) | Southampton (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.96I 33.78% | 2.10I 47.62% | 3.00I 33.33% | 14.7% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.96I 33.78% | 2.10I 47.62% | 3.00I 33.33% | 14.7% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.96I 33.78% | 2.10I 47.62% | 3.00I 33.33% | 14.7% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |