Language:English
Swansea City v Middlesbrough
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swansea City (Local)
Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.742%
Kelly +0.984%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 4.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.83%25.28%25.29%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.713.704.0729.85%26.98%27.03%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Middlesbrough (Visit)
Prediction 48.69%2.05fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.83%48.69%48.69%50.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.912.0055.56%52.28%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -0.698%
Edge -0.183%
Kelly -0.248%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.33%26.03%26.02%27.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.593.603.8231.25%27.82%27.78%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swansea City (Local): 25.31%; Middlesbrough (Visit): 48.69%; Draw: 26.00%. For Swansea City (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.02%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.83%EV +3.02%E +0.742%K +0.984%G +0.030% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.78%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -0.698%E -0.183%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -0.016%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.31%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -2.52%E -0.671%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -0.016%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.31%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -2.52%E -0.671%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.54%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.59%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.87%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-06 16:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.91%EV -1.79%E -0.461%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.31%EV -4.56%E -2.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.52%E -0.671%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-06 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.49%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 15:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -8.46%E -4.50%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 16:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -8.46%E -4.50%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 16:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-06 16:11 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.81%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.92%E -5.36%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.79I 26.39%NM 24.95%EV -4.07%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.56%EV -7.46%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.79%EV -4.83%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.32%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -5.08%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.85%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-06 10:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.08%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.13%EV -3.59%E -1.81%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.82%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 16:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -8.46%E -4.50%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.72%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -9.92%E -5.36%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -7.72%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.76%EV -6.60%E -1.79%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.49%EV -4.56%E -2.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.76%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.76%EV -6.60%E -1.79%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.49%EV -4.56%E -2.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.76%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.61%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -7.61%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -9.92%E -5.36%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 16:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -7.61%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -9.92%E -5.36%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 16:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -7.61%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.89%E -5.95%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-06 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.62%E -1.31%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -3.59%E -1.81%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -7.00%E -3.66%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -7.72%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -6.51%E -3.39%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.48%EV -12.35%E -6.86%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -16.82%E -5.25%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 25.80%EV -10.65%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.18%EV -7.97%E -4.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -11.41%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -2.62%E -1.31%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.41%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.41%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -8.46%E -4.50%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-06 16:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.41%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.95%E -4.78%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-06 10:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -12.67%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -2.62%E -1.31%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -12.67%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -2.62%E -1.31%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -12.67%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.11%EV -7.48%E -3.94%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -15.20%E -4.54%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -8.46%E -4.50%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.02%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.82% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.88% | 0.4% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.82% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.88% | 0.4% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.24% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.94% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.24% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.94% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-04-06 16:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 0.9% | 2026-04-06 16:20 |