Language:English
Burnley v Derby County
Head to Head
Burnley (Local)
Prediction 51.97%1.92fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.84%51.83%51.94%52.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.791.801.8560.98%55.78%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derby County (Visit)
Prediction 22.11%4.52fair odd
EV -0.499%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.142%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%22.29%22.15%23.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.174.204.5027.03%23.98%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.91%3.86fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.402%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.04%25.88%25.92%27.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.583.603.8029.85%27.96%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Burnley (Local): 51.97%; Derby County (Visit): 22.11%; Draw: 25.91%. For Derby County (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.50, with an expected value of -0.499%; they do not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.85%E -2.08%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.85%E -2.08%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.85%E -2.08%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.85%E -2.08%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 18:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.499%E -0.111%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 14:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.499%E -0.111%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.499%E -0.111%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.30%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.52%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.18%EV -1.53%E -0.402%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.82%E -0.753%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 15:53 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.82%E -0.753%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -4.26%E -0.983%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 18:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -4.26%E -0.983%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 18:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.68%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.20%EV -5.81%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -6.19%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 16:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.68%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.20%EV -5.81%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -6.19%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 16:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -9.34%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.89%E -2.67%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -5.41%E -2.97%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.46%EV -5.93%E -3.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.46%EV -3.34%E -0.896%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 15:51 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.45%E -3.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.82%E -0.753%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 16:17 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -6.45%E -3.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.47%EV -7.80%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.47%EV -4.64%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 18:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -6.45%E -3.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -9.34%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 18:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.45%E -3.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.45%E -3.58%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 15:56 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:41 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:41 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.92%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -7.49%E -4.21%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 16:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -8.01%E -4.52%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 19:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -8.01%E -4.52%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.22%EV -8.01%E -4.52%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -8.01%E -4.52%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -7.13%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-12 14:41 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.09%EV -8.01%E -4.52%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -15.98%E -4.20%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-12 18:56 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.52%E -4.84%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.34%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.52%E -4.84%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.34%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-12 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.52%E -4.84%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.34%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.04%E -5.17%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-12 15:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -9.04%E -5.17%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.07%EV -9.34%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.42%EV -10.60%E -6.17%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.81%EV -10.60%E -6.17%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 25.91%EV -10.86%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -12.68%E -7.55%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -11.55%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.75%EV -12.68%E -7.55%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.29%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.95%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 51.74%EV -14.76%E -9.00%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.93%EV -18.19%E -4.92%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.33%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.47% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.59% | 12.9% | 2026-09-12 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.60% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.21% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-09-12 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-09-12 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-09-12 16:25 |