Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burnley v Derby County

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC — Championship

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burnley (Local)

Previsão 51.98%1.92odd justa
EV -3.83%
Vantagem -2.07%
Kelly -4.51%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.84%51.84%51.98%52.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.641.791.801.8560.98%55.78%55.56%54.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Derby County (Visitante)

Previsão 22.14%4.52odd justa
EV -0.392%
Vantagem -0.087%
Kelly -0.112%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.39%22.29%22.15%23.80%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.704.174.204.5027.03%23.97%23.81%22.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.88%3.86odd justa
EV -1.65%
Vantagem -0.433%
Kelly -0.588%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.04%25.87%25.87%27.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.583.603.8029.85%27.95%27.78%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Frente a frente, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Burnley (Local): 51.98%; Derby County (Visitante): 22.14%; Empate: 25.88%. Para Derby County (Visitante), essa estimativa equivale a odds decimais justas de 4.52. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferece odds acima desse nível: as melhores odds disponíveis são 4.50, com valor esperado de -0.392%; não produzem valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.00%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.00%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.00%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:50
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.00%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.392%E -0.087%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 14:41
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.392%E -0.087%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.392%E -0.087%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 14:40
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.30%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.52%EV -5.93%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.18%EV -1.65%E -0.433%K -0.588%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 16:00
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.94%E -0.784%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 15:53
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.94%E -0.784%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 15:55
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -4.15%E -0.960%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:49
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -4.15%E -0.960%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:49
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 16:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 16:15
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.68%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.20%EV -5.70%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -6.31%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 16:35
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.68%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.20%EV -5.70%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -6.31%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 16:35
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:50
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -5.39%E -2.96%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.46%EV -5.91%E -3.27%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.46%EV -3.46%E -0.927%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 15:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.94%E -0.784%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 16:17
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.04%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.53%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 20:00
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.12%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 18:45
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 15:55
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 15:56
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.41%EV -6.95%E -3.88%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.23%EV -6.59%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 19:44
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:41
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:40
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:40
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:41
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.82%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -7.47%E -4.20%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -5.93%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.93%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.23%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:55
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.22%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -5.93%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.12%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 14:41
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.09%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -15.89%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 18:56
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.51%E -4.84%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.71%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:40
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.51%E -4.84%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.71%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.51%E -4.84%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.71%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:40
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.03%E -5.16%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -9.03%E -5.16%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.07%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -10.71%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.42%EV -10.59%E -6.16%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -6.82%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 16:15
ReBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.81%EV -10.59%E -6.16%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 25.91%EV -10.96%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -12.67%E -7.54%K -18.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -11.46%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -12.00%E -3.53%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-12 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.75%EV -12.67%E -7.54%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.29%EV -13.67%E -3.51%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.95%EV -13.29%E -3.97%K -5.66%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-12 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 51.74%EV -14.75%E -8.99%K -23.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.93%EV -18.10%E -4.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.33%EV -13.29%E -3.97%K -5.66%G +0.000%17.9%2026-09-12 16:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 50.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.96%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.54%13.1%2026-09-12 20:25
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 51.60%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.21%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%14.0%2026-09-12 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.70%1.04I 96.15%NM 34.59%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.70%178.0%2026-09-12 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.70%1.04I 96.15%NM 34.59%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.70%178.0%2026-09-12 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 16:25