Language:English
Palmeiras-SP v LDU Quito
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palmeiras-SP (Local)
Prediction 69.05%1.45fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -10.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.64%68.94%68.95%71.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.341.3976.92%74.41%74.63%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
LDU Quito (Visit)
Prediction 9.74%10.26fair odd
EV +7.18%
Edge +0.653%
Kelly +0.718%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.53%9.79%9.56%11.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.459.5011.0012.50%10.58%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.21%4.71fair odd
EV -0.314%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.085%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%21.27%21.49%23.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.354.334.7025.97%23.01%23.09%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palmeiras-SP (Local): 69.05%; LDU Quito (Visit): 9.74%; Draw: 21.21%. For LDU Quito (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.26. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.60%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +7.18%E +0.653%K +0.718%G +0.052% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.08%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +7.18%E +0.653%K +0.718%G +0.052% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.79%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.98%EV -5.41%E -3.95%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 10.49I 9.53%NM 9.14%EV +2.21%E +0.211%K +0.233%G +0.005% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.89%EV -2.65%E -0.577%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.69%EV -6.10%E -4.48%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.25%EV -0.124%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.20%EV -4.03%E -2.90%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.43%EV -0.611%E -0.060%K -0.066%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.37%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.85%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.64%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -0.314%E -0.067%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.85%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.64%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -0.314%E -0.067%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.69%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.28%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 17:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.44%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.33%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.15%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.05%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.42%EV -3.53%E -0.357%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.58%EV -5.00%E -0.512%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.46%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.54%EV -5.00%E -0.512%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -1.37%E -0.296%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 17:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.64%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.48%EV -5.48%E -0.565%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -18.34%E -4.76%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.64%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.48%EV -5.48%E -0.565%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -18.34%E -4.76%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.56%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 9.59I 10.43%NM 9.57%EV -6.56%E -0.684%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.02%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.02%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.02%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.33%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.83%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -5.41%E -3.95%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -7.74%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -6.10%E -4.48%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.31%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.47%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.38%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.38%EV -15.23%E -1.75%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.86%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.89%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -9.86%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.72%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.88%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.03%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.40%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.03%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.40%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.03%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.40%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.90%EV -4.03%E -2.90%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 17:26 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60% | 1.1% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60% | 1.1% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.90% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.57% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.89% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |