Idioma:Español
Palmeiras-SP v LDU Quito
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Palmeiras-SP (Local)
Predicción 69.05%1.45momio equitativo
EV -4.03%
Ventaja -2.90%
Kelly -10.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.39
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.64%68.94%68.95%71.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.341.341.3976.92%74.41%74.63%71.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
LDU Quito (Visitante)
Predicción 9.74%10.26momio equitativo
EV +7.18%
Ventaja +0.653%
Kelly +0.718%
Crecimiento +0.052%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.53%9.79%9.56%11.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.459.5011.0012.50%10.58%10.53%9.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 21.21%4.71momio equitativo
EV -0.314%
Ventaja -0.067%
Kelly -0.085%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.00%21.27%21.49%23.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.354.334.7025.97%23.01%23.09%21.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Palmeiras-SP (Local): 69.05%; LDU Quito (Visitante): 9.74%; Empate: 21.21%. Para LDU Quito (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.26. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.18%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.60%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +7.18%E +0.653%K +0.718%G +0.052% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.08%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +7.18%E +0.653%K +0.718%G +0.052% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.79%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +2.31%E +0.220%K +0.243%G +0.006% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.98%EV -5.41%E -3.95%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 10.49I 9.53%NM 9.14%EV +2.21%E +0.211%K +0.233%G +0.005% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.89%EV -2.65%E -0.577%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.69%EV -6.10%E -4.48%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.25%EV -0.124%E -0.012%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.20%EV -4.03%E -2.90%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.43%EV -0.611%E -0.060%K -0.066%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.37%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.85%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.64%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -0.314%E -0.067%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.85%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.64%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -0.314%E -0.067%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.69%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.28%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 17:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.44%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.33%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.15%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -2.56%E -0.256%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.05%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.42%EV -3.53%E -0.357%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.58%EV -5.00%E -0.512%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.46%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.54%EV -5.00%E -0.512%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -1.37%E -0.296%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 17:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.64%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.48%EV -5.48%E -0.565%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -18.34%E -4.76%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.64%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.48%EV -5.48%E -0.565%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -18.34%E -4.76%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.56%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 9.59I 10.43%NM 9.57%EV -6.56%E -0.684%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.02%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.02%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.02%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.33%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.43%E -0.782%K -0.874%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.83%EV -4.72%E -3.42%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -5.41%E -3.95%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -7.74%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -6.10%E -4.48%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.31%EV -6.79%E -5.03%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.47%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -12.30%E -1.37%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.38%EV -8.86%E -6.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.38%EV -15.23%E -1.75%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.86%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.89%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -9.86%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.72%EV -7.48%E -5.58%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.88%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.03%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.40%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.03%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.40%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.03%EV -10.24%E -7.88%K -34.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.40%EV -17.18%E -2.02%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.90%EV -4.03%E -2.90%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 17:26 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -8.17%E -6.14%K -24.75%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -22.05%E -2.76%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60% | 1.1% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60% | 1.1% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.90% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.57% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.89% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |