Language:English
Palmeiras-SP v Cerro Porteño
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palmeiras-SP (Local)
Prediction 70.39%1.42fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -11.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.31%70.54%70.42%74.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.311.321.3680.65%76.39%75.76%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cerro Porteño (Visit)
Prediction 9.88%10.12fair odd
EV +23.49%
Edge +1.88%
Kelly +2.04%
Growth +0.480%
assuming max odds 12.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.55%9.84%9.85%12.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.859.8012.5014.29%10.15%10.20%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.73%5.07fair odd
EV +4.19%
Edge +0.794%
Kelly +0.980%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 5.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.01%19.62%19.73%21.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.774.755.2823.81%20.97%21.05%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palmeiras-SP (Local): 70.39%; Cerro Porteño (Visit): 9.88%; Draw: 19.73%. For Cerro Porteño (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.12. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.41%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.81%EV +23.49%E +1.88%K +2.04%G +0.480% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.78%EV +2.61%E +0.503%K +0.622%G +0.016% | 2.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.41%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.81%EV +23.49%E +1.88%K +2.04%G +0.480% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.78%EV +2.61%E +0.503%K +0.622%G +0.016% | 2.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.30%EV -10.61%E -8.35%K -39.29%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV +23.49%E +1.88%K +2.04%G +0.480% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV +2.61%E +0.503%K +0.622%G +0.016% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 00:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -12.72%E -10.26%K -53.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -5.28%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -12.72%E -10.26%K -53.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -5.28%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -12.72%E -10.26%K -53.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +18.55%E +1.55%K +1.69%G +0.313% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -5.28%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.23%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV +3.73%E +0.355%K +0.393%G +0.015% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV +0.641%E +0.126%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 11:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.23%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV +3.73%E +0.355%K +0.393%G +0.015% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV +0.641%E +0.126%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-05-20 11:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.57%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +3.73%E +0.355%K +0.393%G +0.015% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -10.61%E -8.35%K -39.29%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV +3.73%E +0.355%K +0.393%G +0.015% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -5.28%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.55%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 10.37I 9.64%NM 9.25%EV +2.44%E +0.236%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.20%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.58%EV -7.79%E -5.95%K -25.14%G +0.000% | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.41%EV -0.222%E -0.022%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 5.28I 18.94%NM 18.01%EV +4.19%E +0.794%K +0.980%G +0.041% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -1.21%E -0.121%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -1.33%E -0.266%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 16:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -1.21%E -0.121%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.00%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -1.21%E -0.121%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.20%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -12.02%E -9.61%K -48.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -1.21%E -0.121%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.39%EV -4.98%E -3.69%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.56%EV -3.19%E -0.325%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.05%EV -12.19%E -2.74%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.39%EV -4.98%E -3.69%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.56%EV -3.19%E -0.325%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.05%EV -12.19%E -2.74%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-21 00:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.71%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.53%EV -3.19%E -0.325%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -11.20%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.55%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 9.69I 10.32%NM 9.75%EV -4.27%E -0.441%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.70%EV -0.346%E -0.068%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 00:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.70%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -6.15%E -0.647%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -3.31%E -0.675%K -0.848%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -6.15%E -0.647%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -6.15%E -0.647%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -8.24%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.97%EV -12.02%E -9.61%K -48.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.21%EV -6.15%E -0.647%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -17.12%E -4.08%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.20%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.32%EV -8.62%E -0.932%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.48%EV -3.31%E -0.675%K -0.848%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 00:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.57%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.50%E -6.54%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.50%E -6.54%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 00:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.50%E -6.54%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.50%E -6.54%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.73%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -14.55%E -3.36%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.24%EV -9.20%E -7.13%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -11.09%E -1.23%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -9.23%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-21 00:18 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.59%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.44%EV -13.07%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.23%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.46%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -16.03%E -1.89%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -6.27%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -16.03%E -1.89%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -13.17%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.20%EV -9.90%E -7.74%K -35.37%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 10.67%EV -18.00%E -2.17%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -13.17%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -7.79%E -5.95%K -25.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -20.97%E -2.62%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -5.28%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.95%EV -8.50%E -6.54%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.57%EV -23.44%E -3.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -9.23%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -30.85%E -4.41%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.20%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -30.85%E -4.41%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.20%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -30.85%E -4.41%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.20%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -30.85%E -4.41%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.20%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.25% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.45% | 0.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.25% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.45% | 0.4% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.99% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.38% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.73% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.61% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66% | 1.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |