Language:English
LDU Quito v Palmeiras-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
LDU Quito (Local)
Prediction 37.07%2.70fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.667%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.10%37.00%37.15%38.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.502.6543.48%40.03%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palmeiras-SP (Visit)
Prediction 31.82%3.14fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.490%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.40%31.81%31.86%32.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.1137.04%34.59%34.48%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd
EV -0.452%
Edge -0.141%
Kelly -0.205%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.19%31.19%30.99%32.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.973.003.2035.71%33.72%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: LDU Quito (Local): 37.07%; Palmeiras-SP (Visit): 31.82%; Draw: 31.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.452%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.88%EV -1.77%E -0.667%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.54%EV -0.452%E -0.141%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.88%EV -1.77%E -0.667%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.54%EV -0.452%E -0.141%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-16 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -2.14%E -0.810%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.04%EV -4.50%E -1.46%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-16 19:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -2.14%E -0.810%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.04%EV -4.50%E -1.46%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-16 19:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.96%EV -3.62%E -1.39%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.00%EV -1.35%E -0.436%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.30%EV -4.36%E -1.69%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.94%EV -1.03%E -0.332%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -5.74%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-16 21:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -5.10%E -1.99%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.45%EV -3.90%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.45%EV -6.05%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-16 21:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-16 21:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 21:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.35%EV -6.21%E -2.46%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.47%EV -7.40%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.19%EV -2.63%E -0.840%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-16 06:36 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 36.89%EV -6.96%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.28%EV -5.81%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 31.82%EV -9.47%E -3.26%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-16 21:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-16 21:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-16 21:16 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-16 21:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:16 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV -8.07%E -3.25%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.66%EV -6.44%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.82%EV -6.05%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.40%EV -2.94%E -0.965%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.75%EV -9.16%E -3.14%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.76%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-16 21:41 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -9.92%E -4.08%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -14.08%E -5.22%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -9.92%E -4.08%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -14.08%E -5.22%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -9.92%E -4.08%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -14.08%E -5.22%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.78%E -4.95%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-16 21:16 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.78%E -4.95%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.75%EV -12.15%E -5.12%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.72%EV -10.26%E -3.64%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.53%EV -8.85%E -3.02%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-16 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -12.15%E -5.12%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -12.15%E -5.12%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-16 21:21 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -14.74%E -6.41%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-16 21:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01% | 0.8% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |