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LDU Quito v Palmeiras-SP
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
LDU Quito (Local)
Predicción 37.07%2.70momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -0.667%
Kelly -1.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.10%37.00%37.15%38.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.502.502.6543.48%40.03%40.00%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Palmeiras-SP (Visitante)
Predicción 31.82%3.14momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.332%
Kelly -0.490%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.11
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.40%31.81%31.86%32.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.892.903.1137.04%34.59%34.48%32.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.11%3.21momio equitativo
EV -0.452%
Ventaja -0.141%
Kelly -0.205%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.19%31.19%30.99%32.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.973.003.2035.71%33.72%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: LDU Quito (Local): 37.07%; Palmeiras-SP (Visitante): 31.82%; Empate: 31.11%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.21. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.20, con un valor esperado de -0.452%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.88%EV -1.77%E -0.667%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.54%EV -0.452%E -0.141%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.88%EV -1.77%E -0.667%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.54%EV -0.452%E -0.141%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-16 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -2.14%E -0.810%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.04%EV -4.50%E -1.46%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-16 19:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -2.14%E -0.810%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.04%EV -4.50%E -1.46%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-16 19:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.96%EV -3.62%E -1.39%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.00%EV -1.35%E -0.436%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.30%EV -4.36%E -1.69%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.94%EV -1.03%E -0.332%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -5.74%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-16 21:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -5.10%E -1.99%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.45%EV -3.90%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.45%EV -6.05%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-16 21:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-16 21:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 21:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.35%EV -6.21%E -2.46%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.47%EV -7.40%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.19%EV -2.63%E -0.840%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-16 06:36 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 36.89%EV -6.96%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.28%EV -5.81%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 31.82%EV -9.47%E -3.26%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-16 21:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-16 21:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-16 21:16 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-16 21:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:16 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-16 21:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV -8.07%E -3.25%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.66%EV -6.44%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.82%EV -6.05%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.40%EV -2.94%E -0.965%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.75%EV -9.16%E -3.14%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-16 21:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.76%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-16 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-16 21:41 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -9.92%E -4.08%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -14.08%E -5.22%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -9.92%E -4.08%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -14.08%E -5.22%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -9.92%E -4.08%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -14.08%E -5.22%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 21:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.78%E -4.95%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-16 21:16 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -11.78%E -4.95%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.75%EV -12.15%E -5.12%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.72%EV -10.26%E -3.64%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.53%EV -8.85%E -3.02%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-16 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -12.15%E -5.12%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-16 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -12.15%E -5.12%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-16 21:21 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -14.74%E -6.41%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-16 21:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01% | 0.8% | 2026-09-16 21:56 |