Language:English
LDU Quito v Lanus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
LDU Quito (Local)
Prediction 49.66%2.01fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.28%49.64%49.78%51.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.861.851.9557.80%53.78%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lanus (Visit)
Prediction 21.92%4.56fair odd
EV +1.92%
Edge +0.412%
Kelly +0.525%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 4.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.20%21.99%21.84%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.264.254.6526.32%23.48%23.53%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV -0.506%
Edge -0.145%
Kelly -0.202%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%28.37%28.39%29.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.253.5034.72%30.61%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: LDU Quito (Local): 49.66%; Lanus (Visit): 21.92%; Draw: 28.43%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.49%EV +1.92%E +0.412%K +0.525%G +0.010% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.49%EV +1.92%E +0.412%K +0.525%G +0.010% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV +0.821%E +0.178%K +0.228%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.82%EV -4.16%E -2.16%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.22%EV -0.713%E -0.158%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.96%EV -5.62%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.63%EV -4.66%E -2.43%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -0.506%E -0.145%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.63%EV -4.66%E -2.43%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -0.506%E -0.145%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-20 23:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-21 00:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.54%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.68%EV -7.33%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.77%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.38%EV -2.69%E -0.605%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.84%EV -3.06%E -0.899%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.95%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.83%EV -7.90%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.84%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.39%EV -4.66%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.69%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -5.10%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 00:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -3.17%E -1.63%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 00:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.52%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.88%EV -5.65%E -2.98%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.25%EV -6.63%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 00:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.70%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -4.16%E -2.16%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-20 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-21 00:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.16%E -2.70%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -5.65%E -2.98%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -14.10%E -8.15%K -19.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -18.13%E -6.30%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-05-21 00:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-21 00:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.06%EV -7.64%E -4.11%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -15.62%E -4.06%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.77%EV -8.63%E -4.69%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.35% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59% | 0.9% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.35% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59% | 0.9% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.35% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59% | 0.9% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.29% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40% | 1.5% | 2026-05-21 00:20 |