L’École des cotes

LDU Quito v Lanus

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-21 00:30 UTC

Score final : LDU Quito 2–0 Lanus

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

45 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

LDU Quito (Local)

Prévision 49.66%2.01cote équitable
EV -3.17%
Avantage -1.63%
Kelly -3.34%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.28%49.64%49.78%51.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.731.861.851.9557.80%53.78%54.05%51.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Lanus (Visiteur)

Prévision 21.92%4.56cote équitable
EV +1.92%
Avantage +0.412%
Kelly +0.525%
Croissance +0.010%

avec la cote maximale 4.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.20%21.99%21.84%23.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.804.264.254.6526.32%23.48%23.53%21.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.43%3.52cote équitable
EV -0.506%
Avantage -0.145%
Kelly -0.202%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.24%28.37%28.39%29.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.273.253.5034.72%30.61%30.77%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.49%EV +1.92%E +0.412%K +0.525%G +0.010%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-20 23:40
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.49%EV +1.92%E +0.412%K +0.525%G +0.010%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-20 23:40
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV +0.821%E +0.178%K +0.228%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Pinnacle1.93I 51.81%NM 49.82%EV -4.16%E -2.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.22%EV -0.713%E -0.158%K -0.202%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.96%EV -5.62%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 50.63%EV -4.66%E -2.43%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -0.506%E -0.145%K -0.202%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-20 23:50
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.63%EV -4.66%E -2.43%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -0.506%E -0.145%K -0.202%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-20 23:49
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-21 00:10
Suprabets1.85I 54.05%NM 50.54%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.68%EV -7.33%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -1.37%E -0.305%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 00:20
1xBet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.77%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.38%EV -2.69%E -0.605%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.84%EV -3.06%E -0.899%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 00:20
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 23:00
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 23:40
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 23:40
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 23:40
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 23:40
Marathon Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.95%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -3.56%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.83%EV -7.90%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.84%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.39%EV -4.66%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-20 23:50
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 49.69%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -5.10%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 00:09
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -3.17%E -1.63%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-21 00:19
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 49.52%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-21 00:20
GTbets1.90I 52.63%NM 49.88%EV -5.65%E -2.98%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.25%EV -6.63%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-21 00:09
PointsBet (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.70%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-20 23:50
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-21 00:20
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-21 00:20
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-20 23:50
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-20 23:50
PMU (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-20 23:50
Coolbet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -4.16%E -2.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.35%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-20 22:00
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-20 23:50
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-21 00:20
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-21 00:20
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-21 00:20
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-21 00:19
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.16%E -2.70%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-20 23:40
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -5.65%E -2.98%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-20 23:50
Codere (IT)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -6.65%E -3.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-20 23:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -14.10%E -8.15%K -19.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -18.13%E -6.30%K -9.64%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-21 00:00
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-20 23:40
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-20 23:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-20 23:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-20 23:40
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-21 00:10
Winamax (DE)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.06%EV -7.64%E -4.11%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -15.62%E -4.06%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-20 23:40
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.77%EV -8.63%E -4.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-20 23:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.35%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-05-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.35%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-05-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.35%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-05-21 00:20
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 51.29%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%1.5%2026-05-21 00:20