Language:English
Independiente Santa Fe v Peñarol Montevideo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 44.31%2.26fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.33%44.34%44.14%45.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.1850.00%47.87%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Peñarol Montevideo (Visit)
Prediction 24.58%4.07fair odd
EV +0.528%
Edge +0.129%
Kelly +0.171%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.02%24.59%24.76%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.804.0928.99%26.44%26.32%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.635%
Kelly -0.931%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.05%31.07%31.10%32.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.972.983.1536.36%33.71%33.56%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Santa Fe (Local): 44.31%; Peñarol Montevideo (Visit): 24.58%; Draw: 31.11%. For Peñarol Montevideo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.528%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.95%EV -5.18%E -2.42%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.52%EV +0.528%E +0.129%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.34%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.45%EV -0.209%E -0.051%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 01:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.34%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.45%EV -0.209%E -0.051%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 01:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.36%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.94%EV -2.00%E -0.635%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.36%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.94%EV -2.00%E -0.635%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 01:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.08%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.46%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -2.91%E -0.737%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.34%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-10 01:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -4.14%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.60%EV -7.39%E -3.54%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -4.14%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.49%EV -7.91%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.27%EV -6.51%E -3.08%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -4.63%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 01:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.95%EV -3.85%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-09 13:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 01:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.61%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-10 01:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-10 01:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.75%EV -5.18%E -2.42%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 24.83%EV -7.34%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 01:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.95%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.78%EV -7.58%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-08 00:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 01:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.55%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-10 00:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 24.56%EV -8.32%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.74%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-10 01:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-10 01:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 08:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 08:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.11%EV -7.83%E -3.77%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-10 01:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -9.61%E -4.71%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -9.61%E -4.71%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -9.61%E -4.71%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-10 01:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-09 21:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-09 21:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.79%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.28%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-09 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.79%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.28%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-09 21:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -13.97%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -13.97%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -14.45%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-10 01:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.07%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -15.20%E -4.41%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-10 01:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-10 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-10 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.24% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.00% | 2.5% | 2026-04-10 01:50 |