La escuela de los momios

Independiente Santa Fe v Peñarol Montevideo

Inicio: 2026-04-10 02:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Independiente Santa Fe (Local)

Predicción 44.31%2.26momio equitativo
EV -3.40%
Ventaja -1.56%
Kelly -2.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.33%44.34%44.14%45.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.092.102.1850.00%47.87%47.62%45.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Peñarol Montevideo (Visitante)

Predicción 24.58%4.07momio equitativo
EV +0.528%
Ventaja +0.129%
Kelly +0.171%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.09

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.02%24.59%24.76%26.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.453.783.804.0928.99%26.44%26.32%24.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.11%3.21momio equitativo
EV -2.00%
Ventaja -0.635%
Kelly -0.931%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.05%31.07%31.10%32.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.972.983.1536.36%33.71%33.56%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.14I 46.73%NM 44.95%EV -5.18%E -2.42%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.52%EV +0.528%E +0.129%K +0.171%G +0.001%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-10 01:50
LowVig.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.34%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.45%EV -0.209%E -0.051%K -0.068%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 01:55
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.34%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.45%EV -0.209%E -0.051%K -0.068%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 01:55
Svenska Spel2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.36%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.94%EV -2.00%E -0.635%K -0.931%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-10 01:45
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.36%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.94%EV -2.00%E -0.635%K -0.931%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-10 01:50
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-10 01:35
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -1.68%E -0.421%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.08%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-10 01:45
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 44.46%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -2.91%E -0.737%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.34%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-10 01:54
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -4.14%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 01:50
Marathon Bet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.60%EV -7.39%E -3.54%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -4.14%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.49%EV -7.91%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 01:50
Suprabets2.11I 47.39%NM 44.27%EV -6.51%E -3.08%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -4.63%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-10 01:54
Coolbet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.95%EV -3.85%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 13:24
Grosvenor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 01:45
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 01:49
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 01:50
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.37%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 01:50
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 44.61%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-10 01:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-10 01:45
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-10 01:55
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-10 01:50
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-10 01:50
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-10 01:50
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-10 01:45
1xBet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.75%EV -5.18%E -2.42%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.83%EV -7.34%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-10 01:49
GTbets2.12I 47.17%NM 43.95%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.78%EV -7.58%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 00:01
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 01:35
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.55%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-10 00:35
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.56%EV -8.32%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.74%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 01:33
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 01:35
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 08:54
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -7.29%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 08:54
Codere (IT)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.11%EV -7.83%E -3.77%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 01:34
PMU (FR)2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -9.61%E -4.71%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 01:45
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -9.61%E -4.71%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 01:45
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -9.61%E -4.71%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 01:45
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.11%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 13:00
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 01:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-09 21:30
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-09 21:30
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 43.79%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.28%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-09 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.79%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.28%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-09 21:30
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -13.97%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -13.97%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -14.45%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-10 01:45
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.07%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -15.20%E -4.41%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-10 01:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%1.0%2026-04-10 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%1.0%2026-04-10 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%1.0%2026-04-10 01:50
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.77%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.24%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.00%2.5%2026-04-10 01:50