Language:English
Independiente Medellín v Flamengo-RJ
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente Medellín (Local)
Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV +10.19%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +2.61%
Growth +0.266%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.64%22.36%22.64%24.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.294.224.9027.40%23.32%23.67%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Flamengo-RJ (Visit)
Prediction 49.16%2.03fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -4.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.89%49.41%49.06%53.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.851.851.9558.48%54.15%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.574%
Kelly +0.795%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.84%28.23%28.30%29.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.303.6033.33%30.23%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Medellín (Local): 22.49%; Flamengo-RJ (Visit): 49.16%; Draw: 28.35%. For Independiente Medellín (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV +10.19%E +2.08%K +2.61%G +0.266% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.14%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.01%EV +2.07%E +0.574%K +0.795%G +0.016% | 2.8% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV +10.19%E +2.08%K +2.61%G +0.266% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.14%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.01%EV +2.07%E +0.574%K +0.795%G +0.016% | 2.8% | 2026-05-08 00:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV +7.94%E +1.65%K +2.09%G +0.166% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.40%EV -5.31%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.38%EV -13.48%E -7.66%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.38%EV -13.48%E -7.66%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -12.99%E -7.34%K -16.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -12.99%E -7.34%K -16.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.31%EV -13.97%E -7.98%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +5.69%E +1.21%K +1.54%G +0.088% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.99%EV -12.49%E -7.02%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 00:16 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +3.44%E +0.748%K +0.956%G +0.033% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -15.44%E -8.98%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +3.44%E +0.748%K +0.956%G +0.033% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -15.44%E -8.98%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV +3.44%E +0.748%K +0.956%G +0.033% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -15.94%E -9.32%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.56I 21.93%NM 20.89%EV +2.54%E +0.558%K +0.714%G +0.018% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.50%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 22:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.56I 21.93%NM 20.89%EV +2.54%E +0.558%K +0.714%G +0.018% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.50%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 22:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.34%EV +1.42%E +0.315%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.86%EV -5.12%E -2.65%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.81%EV -5.31%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV +0.070%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.62%EV -7.58%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 00:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV +0.070%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -8.07%E -4.32%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.75%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.10%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.46%EV -7.58%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 27.98%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 23:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -6.59%E -3.47%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 00:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.04%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.30%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.43%EV -7.09%E -3.75%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.84%EV -8.14%E -2.51%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -4.43%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 23:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 23:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 23:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -11.51%E -6.39%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -6.68%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.48%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -6.68%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.48%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -5.12%E -2.65%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 00:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 00:18 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 00:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.07%E -4.32%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-07 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -14.95%E -8.64%K -20.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-05-07 23:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 22.85%EV -10.50%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.16%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 00:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-08 00:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -14.55%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -7.58%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -14.55%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -17.92%E -4.91%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.89%EV -9.54%E -5.19%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-08 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19% | 0.8% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19% | 0.8% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19% | 0.8% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.97% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.04% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 1.4% | 2026-05-08 00:25 |