A Escola das Odds

Independiente Medellín v Flamengo-RJ

Início: 2026-05-08 00:30 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Independiente Medellín (Local)

Previsão 22.49%4.45odd justa
EV +10.19%
Vantagem +2.08%
Kelly +2.61%
Crescimento +0.266%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.64%22.36%22.64%24.14%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.654.294.224.9027.40%23.32%23.67%20.41%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Flamengo-RJ (Visitante)

Previsão 49.16%2.03odd justa
EV -4.14%
Vantagem -2.12%
Kelly -4.35%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.89%49.41%49.06%53.38%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.711.851.851.9558.48%54.15%54.05%51.28%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 28.35%3.53odd justa
EV +2.07%
Vantagem +0.574%
Kelly +0.795%
Crescimento +0.016%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.84%28.23%28.30%29.31%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.003.313.303.6033.33%30.23%30.30%27.78%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
ATG (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV +10.19%E +2.08%K +2.61%G +0.266%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.14%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.01%EV +2.07%E +0.574%K +0.795%G +0.016%2.8%2026-05-08 00:20
Svenska Spel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV +10.19%E +2.08%K +2.61%G +0.266%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.14%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.01%EV +2.07%E +0.574%K +0.795%G +0.016%2.8%2026-05-08 00:19
1xBet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV +7.94%E +1.65%K +2.09%G +0.166%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.40%EV -5.31%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 00:20
Unibet (NL)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.38%EV -13.48%E -7.66%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 00:24
Casumo4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.38%EV -13.48%E -7.66%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 00:24
Grosvenor4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -12.99%E -7.34%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 00:25
Unibet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -12.99%E -7.34%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV +6.82%E +1.43%K +1.82%G +0.124%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.31%EV -13.97%E -7.98%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 00:25
BetRivers4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +5.69%E +1.21%K +1.54%G +0.088%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.99%EV -12.49%E -7.02%K -16.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 00:16
PMU (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +3.44%E +0.748%K +0.956%G +0.033%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -15.44%E -8.98%K -21.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 00:25
LiveScore Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +3.44%E +0.748%K +0.956%G +0.033%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -15.44%E -8.98%K -21.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 00:25
Virgin Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV +3.44%E +0.748%K +0.956%G +0.033%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -15.94%E -9.32%K -22.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 00:24
LowVig.ag4.56I 21.93%NM 20.89%EV +2.54%E +0.558%K +0.714%G +0.018%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.50%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 22:55
BetOnline.ag4.56I 21.93%NM 20.89%EV +2.54%E +0.558%K +0.714%G +0.018%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.50%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61%EV -2.19%E -0.634%K -0.892%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 22:55
Pinnacle4.51I 22.17%NM 21.34%EV +1.42%E +0.315%K +0.404%G +0.006%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.86%EV -5.12%E -2.65%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.81%EV -5.31%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 00:20
Coolbet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV +0.070%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.62%EV -7.58%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 00:09
BetUS4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV +0.070%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -8.07%E -4.32%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 00:20
Bovada4.40I 22.73%NM 21.75%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.10%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 00:24
GTbets4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.46%EV -7.58%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.98%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 23:10
Everygame4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -6.59%E -3.47%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 00:04
SportsBet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -1.05%E -0.240%K -0.310%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.04%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 00:20
Marathon Bet4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.30%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.43%EV -7.09%E -3.75%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.84%EV -8.14%E -2.51%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 00:24
PointsBet (AU)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -4.43%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 23:15
Betr (AU)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 23:14
betfred_uk4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 23:15
Paddy Power4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -11.51%E -6.39%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-08 00:20
Betsson4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -6.68%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.48%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 00:24
NordicBet4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -6.68%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.48%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 00:24
Unibet (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 00:25
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 00:25
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 00:25
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -5.12%E -2.65%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 00:24
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 00:19
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 00:18
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 00:19
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.10%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 00:20
Codere (IT)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.07%E -4.32%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-07 23:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -14.95%E -8.64%K -20.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-07 23:59
Betclic (FR)3.98I 25.13%NM 22.85%EV -10.50%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.16%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:09
Neds3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 00:20
Ladbrokes (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 00:20
Coral3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 00:20
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -14.55%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -7.58%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 00:25
Unibet (FR)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -14.55%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-08 00:25
Winamax (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -17.92%E -4.91%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.89%EV -9.54%E -5.19%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-08 00:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-05-08 00:25
Smarkets4.70I 21.28%NM 20.97%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99%1.4%2026-05-08 00:25