Language:English
Independiente del Valle v Libertad Asuncion
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle (Local)
Prediction 70.69%1.41fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -10.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.61%70.60%70.69%72.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.311.3680.00%76.16%76.05%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Libertad Asuncion (Visit)
Prediction 10.89%9.18fair odd
EV +8.94%
Edge +0.894%
Kelly +0.993%
Growth +0.089%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.51%11.05%10.86%13.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.568.7510.0014.81%11.69%11.43%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.42%5.43fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.234%
Kelly +0.286%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.01%18.35%18.45%20.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.085.055.5023.81%19.67%19.80%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente del Valle (Local): 70.69%; Libertad Asuncion (Visit): 10.89%; Draw: 18.42%. For Libertad Asuncion (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.18. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +8.94%E +0.894%K +0.993%G +0.089% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-19 16:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.07%EV -4.57%E -3.38%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.24%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69%EV +1.29%E +0.234%K +0.286%G +0.004% | 2.8% | 2026-05-19 13:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.07%EV -4.57%E -3.38%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.24%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69%EV +1.29%E +0.234%K +0.286%G +0.004% | 2.8% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV -0.553%E -0.102%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 13:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -2.39%E -0.452%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -2.39%E -0.452%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -2.39%E -0.452%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -2.39%E -0.452%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.51%EV -8.81%E -6.83%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -2.39%E -0.452%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.90%EV -9.52%E -7.44%K -33.99%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV +3.49%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.014% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.04%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 9.26I 10.80%NM 10.35%EV +0.880%E +0.095%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 17.61%EV +0.184%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.32%E -0.632%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.69%E -5.07%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-18 19:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -12.52%E -2.64%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 13:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.09%EV -10.93%E -8.68%K -42.04%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -6.08%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-19 13:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.09%EV -10.93%E -8.68%K -42.04%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -6.08%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.09%EV -10.93%E -8.68%K -42.04%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -6.08%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-19 13:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -11.64%E -9.31%K -46.55%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -1.95%E -0.217%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.47%EV -7.40%E -5.65%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.52%EV -3.04%E -0.342%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -4.24%E -0.815%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-19 22:36 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -6.69%E -5.07%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -4.13%E -0.470%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -8.84%E -1.79%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -6.69%E -5.07%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -4.13%E -0.470%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -8.84%E -1.79%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.57%EV -5.28%E -3.94%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.96%EV -4.68%E -0.534%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.49I 18.21%NM 17.47%EV +1.10%E +0.201%K +0.246%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.00%EV -5.28%E -3.94%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.87%EV -4.68%E -0.534%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.12%EV -3.32%E -0.632%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 05:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.00%EV -5.28%E -3.94%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.87%EV -4.68%E -0.534%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.12%EV -3.32%E -0.632%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 05:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.00%EV -5.28%E -3.94%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.87%EV -4.68%E -0.534%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.12%EV -3.32%E -0.632%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 05:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.59%EV -3.86%E -2.84%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 8.66I 11.55%NM 11.09%EV -5.66%E -0.653%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.32%EV -3.50%E -0.668%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-19 19:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -7.40%E -0.871%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV +1.29%E +0.234%K +0.286%G +0.004% | 6.9% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.871%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.871%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.871%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.871%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.10%E -6.23%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.40%E -0.871%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-18 19:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.15%EV -7.40%E -5.65%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.10%EV -8.49%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -3.32%E -0.632%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -3.86%E -2.84%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.56%EV -10.12%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%EV -4.24%E -0.815%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-19 22:38 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -12.85%E -1.61%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-19 22:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -6.69%E -5.07%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.85%E -1.61%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-19 14:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.10%EV -17.20%E -2.26%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.86%E -2.84%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -18.29%E -2.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-19 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.61%EV -8.81%E -6.83%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.63%EV -18.29%E -2.44%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.76%EV -22.65%E -5.39%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-19 02:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.02%EV -8.81%E -6.83%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.03%EV -19.38%E -2.62%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.94%EV -13.44%E -2.86%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.40%EV -6.69%E -5.07%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.64%EV -21.02%E -2.90%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.96%EV -6.08%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-19 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -23.74%E -3.39%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-19 21:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -23.74%E -3.39%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-19 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -23.74%E -3.39%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-19 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -5.98%E -4.50%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -23.74%E -3.39%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-19 21:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.23%EV -8.81%E -6.83%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.04%EV -26.46%E -3.92%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -13.44%E -2.86%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-19 13:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.55% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.24% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 1.1% | 2026-05-19 23:00 |