Language:English
Flamengo-RJ v Independiente del Valle
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Flamengo-RJ (Local)
Prediction 74.70%1.34fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -6.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.74%74.56%74.67%76.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.251.251.3184.75%79.96%80.00%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente del Valle (Visit)
Prediction 9.38%10.66fair odd
EV +7.92%
Edge +0.688%
Kelly +0.754%
Growth +0.060%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.26%9.35%9.37%11.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.7410.0011.5013.33%10.27%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.92%6.28fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +0.629%
Kelly +0.742%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 6.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.47%16.08%15.96%17.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.685.756.5420.00%17.60%17.39%15.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo-RJ (Local): 74.70%; Independiente del Valle (Visit): 9.38%; Draw: 15.92%. For Independiente del Valle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.66. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.78%EV -2.89%E -2.23%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +7.92%E +0.688%K +0.754%G +0.060% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.76%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.78%EV -2.89%E -2.23%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +7.92%E +0.688%K +0.754%G +0.060% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.76%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.13%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.26%EV +5.57%E +0.495%K +0.543%G +0.030% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.61%EV -5.28%E -0.887%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 23:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 23:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -1.30%E -0.210%K -0.250%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.74%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.79%EV -6.08%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.97I 9.12%NM 8.68%EV +2.94%E +0.268%K +0.295%G +0.009% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -3.69%E -0.609%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.94%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.59I 9.44%NM 8.99%EV -0.623%E -0.059%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 5.92I 16.89%NM 16.08%EV -5.76%E -0.972%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -1.47%E -0.140%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -16.42%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -1.47%E -0.140%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -16.42%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -2.89%E -2.23%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 23:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-18 00:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.36%E -8.64%K -51.82%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -15.63%E -2.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-18 00:23 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.70%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -16.42%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.36%E -8.64%K -51.82%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-18 00:23 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.70%EV -11.86%E -10.05%K -65.88%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.18%EV -2.15%E -1.64%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 9.44I 10.59%NM 10.29%EV -11.41%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.26I 15.97%NM 15.52%EV -0.344%E -0.055%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.12%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.40%EV -14.61%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.47%EV +4.11%E +0.629%K +0.742%G +0.031% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.15%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.67%EV -0.503%E -0.081%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.34%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -17.22%E -3.31%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54% | 0.6% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54% | 0.6% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.88% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.88% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |