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Flamengo-RJ v Independiente del Valle
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Flamengo-RJ (Local)
Predicción 74.70%1.34momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -6.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.31
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.74%74.56%74.67%76.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.181.251.251.3184.75%79.96%80.00%76.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Independiente del Valle (Visitante)
Predicción 9.38%10.66momio equitativo
EV +7.92%
Ventaja +0.688%
Kelly +0.754%
Crecimiento +0.060%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.26%9.35%9.37%11.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.509.7410.0011.5013.33%10.27%10.00%8.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 15.92%6.28momio equitativo
EV +4.11%
Ventaja +0.629%
Kelly +0.742%
Crecimiento +0.031%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.47%16.08%15.96%17.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.685.756.5420.00%17.60%17.39%15.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Flamengo-RJ (Local): 74.70%; Independiente del Valle (Visitante): 9.38%; Empate: 15.92%. Para Independiente del Valle (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.66. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.92%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.78%EV -2.89%E -2.23%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +7.92%E +0.688%K +0.754%G +0.060% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.76%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.78%EV -2.89%E -2.23%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +7.92%E +0.688%K +0.754%G +0.060% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.76%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.13%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.26%EV +5.57%E +0.495%K +0.543%G +0.030% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.61%EV -5.28%E -0.887%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 23:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 23:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -1.30%E -0.210%K -0.250%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.74%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +3.22%E +0.293%K +0.322%G +0.010% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.79%EV -6.08%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.97I 9.12%NM 8.68%EV +2.94%E +0.268%K +0.295%G +0.009% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -3.69%E -0.609%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.94%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.59I 9.44%NM 8.99%EV -0.623%E -0.059%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 5.92I 16.89%NM 16.08%EV -5.76%E -0.972%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -1.47%E -0.140%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -16.42%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -1.47%E -0.140%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -16.42%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -2.89%E -2.23%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 23:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-18 00:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.36%E -8.64%K -51.82%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -6.16%E -0.616%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.82%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -15.63%E -2.95%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-18 00:23 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.70%EV -5.14%E -4.04%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -16.42%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.36%E -8.64%K -51.82%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-18 00:23 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.70%EV -11.86%E -10.05%K -65.88%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -10.85%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.18%EV -2.15%E -1.64%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 9.44I 10.59%NM 10.29%EV -11.41%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.26I 15.97%NM 15.52%EV -0.344%E -0.055%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.12%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.40%EV -14.61%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.47%EV +4.11%E +0.629%K +0.742%G +0.031% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.15%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.67%EV -0.503%E -0.081%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.34%EV -5.88%E -4.67%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -17.22%E -3.31%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.87%E -7.27%K -40.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -4.48%E -0.747%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.12%E -6.60%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -15.54%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -6.63%E -5.30%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -29.62%E -3.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54% | 0.6% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54% | 0.6% | 2026-09-18 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.88% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.88% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 0.8% | 2026-09-18 00:20 |