Language:English
Cerro Porteño v Palmeiras-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cerro Porteño (Local)
Prediction 19.44%5.14fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +0.641%
Kelly +0.789%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 5.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.84%19.39%19.54%20.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.794.755.3222.73%20.86%21.05%18.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palmeiras-SP (Visit)
Prediction 51.35%1.95fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -5.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.31%51.41%51.34%53.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.801.8558.14%55.71%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -0.695%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.289%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.56%29.20%29.12%30.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.203.4033.33%31.65%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerro Porteño (Local): 19.44%; Palmeiras-SP (Visit): 51.35%; Draw: 29.21%. For Cerro Porteño (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.14. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.84%EV +3.41%E +0.641%K +0.789%G +0.027% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.32%EV -8.59%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.85%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.64%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.64%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.67%EV -0.090%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.88%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV -0.867%E -0.170%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.52%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV -0.867%E -0.170%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.52%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59%EV -0.867%E -0.170%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.23%EV -5.51%E -2.99%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.02%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-19 21:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.19%EV -7.05%E -3.89%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.54%EV -3.32%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-19 21:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -8.07%E -4.51%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -8.07%E -4.51%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -8.07%E -4.51%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 21:56 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-19 21:56 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -8.59%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.10%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.93%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.53%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.53%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.82%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.89%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.29%EV -7.12%E -2.24%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.73%EV -9.62%E -5.46%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -9.61%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -9.61%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.48%EV -10.64%E -6.12%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.09%EV -8.59%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.15%EV -8.87%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.85%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-19 21:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-19 21:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.38%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.38%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-19 21:56 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.38%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-19 21:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -14.47%E -3.29%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.08%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-19 21:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.09% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.09% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.09% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.22% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |