Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cerro Porteño v Palmeiras-SP

Início: 2026-08-19 22:00 UTC

Final: Cerro Porteño 0–1 Palmeiras-SP

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cerro Porteño (Local)

Previsão 19.44%5.14odd justa
EV +3.41%
Vantagem +0.641%
Kelly +0.789%
Crescimento +0.027%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.84%19.39%19.54%20.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.404.794.755.3222.73%20.86%21.05%18.80%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Palmeiras-SP (Visitante)

Previsão 51.35%1.95odd justa
EV -4.99%
Vantagem -2.70%
Kelly -5.87%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.31%51.41%51.34%53.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.721.791.801.8558.14%55.71%55.56%54.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.21%3.42odd justa
EV -0.695%
Vantagem -0.204%
Kelly -0.289%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.56%29.20%29.12%30.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.163.203.4033.33%31.65%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cerro Porteño (Local): 19.44%; Palmeiras-SP (Visitante): 51.35%; Empate: 29.21%. Para Cerro Porteño (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.14. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.32, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.41%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯5.32I 18.80%NM 17.84%EV +3.41%E +0.641%K +0.789%G +0.027%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.32%EV -8.59%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.85%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-19 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.64%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-19 21:55
ATG (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.63%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.64%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-19 21:55
Coolbet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-19 21:05
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.256%G +0.003%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:10
Pinnacle🎯5.14I 19.46%NM 18.67%EV -0.090%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.88%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-19 21:35
LowVig.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV -0.867%E -0.170%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.52%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV -0.867%E -0.170%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.52%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 21:10
BetUS🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59%EV -0.867%E -0.170%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-19 21:10
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.23%EV -5.51%E -2.99%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 21:45
Suprabets🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.02%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-19 21:09
GTbets🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.19%EV -7.05%E -3.89%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.54%EV -3.32%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 21:05
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 21:09
Unibet (NL)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -8.07%E -4.51%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:55
Casumo🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -8.07%E -4.51%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:55
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -8.07%E -4.51%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:56
Betr (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 21:05
LeoVegas🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-19 21:56
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -8.59%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-19 21:10
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-19 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-19 21:50
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-19 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-19 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.10%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 21:05
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 21:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 21:05
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-19 21:35
Grosvenor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.93%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-19 21:55
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.53%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-19 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.53%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-19 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-19 21:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.82%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.89%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.29%EV -7.12%E -2.24%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.73%EV -9.62%E -5.46%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 21:10
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -9.61%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-19 21:35
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -9.61%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-19 21:35
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 21:05
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.48%EV -10.64%E -6.12%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 21:05
Betclic (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.09%EV -8.59%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.15%EV -8.87%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-19 21:35
Unibet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -10.59%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.85%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-19 21:35
theScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-19 21:10
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-19 21:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-19 21:10
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-19 21:10
PMU (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.38%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.38%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 21:56
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.38%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -14.47%E -3.29%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.08%EV -11.67%E -6.78%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-19 21:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15%0.5%2026-08-19 21:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15%0.5%2026-08-19 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15%0.5%2026-08-19 21:50
Smarkets◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.22%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-08-19 21:50