Language:English
Cerro Porteño v Palmeiras-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cerro Porteño (Local)
Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV +11.14%
Edge +2.32%
Kelly +2.93%
Growth +0.327%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.08%22.97%22.92%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.144.134.8029.41%24.18%24.21%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palmeiras-SP (Visit)
Prediction 47.81%2.09fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.23%48.15%47.99%52.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.881.901.9957.14%53.19%52.63%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.03%3.44fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.461%
Kelly +0.646%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.22%28.88%29.09%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.233.253.5034.48%30.93%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerro Porteño (Local): 23.15%; Palmeiras-SP (Visit): 47.81%; Draw: 29.03%. For Cerro Porteño (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.25%EV +11.14%E +2.32%K +2.93%G +0.327% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.98%EV -10.59%E -5.66%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV +1.62%E +0.461%K +0.646%G +0.010% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.25%EV +11.14%E +2.32%K +2.93%G +0.327% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.98%EV -10.59%E -5.66%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV +1.62%E +0.461%K +0.646%G +0.010% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 22:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV +8.83%E +1.88%K +2.39%G +0.211% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.15%EV -13.46%E -7.44%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +6.51%E +1.42%K +1.81%G +0.118% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -13.94%E -7.74%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +6.51%E +1.42%K +1.81%G +0.118% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -13.94%E -7.74%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +6.51%E +1.42%K +1.81%G +0.118% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -13.94%E -7.74%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 22:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +6.51%E +1.42%K +1.81%G +0.118% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -13.94%E -7.74%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV +6.51%E +1.42%K +1.81%G +0.118% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.99%EV -14.42%E -8.05%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -2.74%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-21 22:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV +4.20%E +0.933%K +1.20%G +0.050% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -16.33%E -9.33%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV +4.20%E +0.933%K +1.20%G +0.050% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -16.33%E -9.33%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 08:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV +4.20%E +0.933%K +1.20%G +0.050% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -16.33%E -9.33%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 08:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV +0.261%E +0.060%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -13.94%E -7.74%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-21 16:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.55%EV -1.36%E -0.319%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.26%EV -4.85%E -2.44%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.19%EV -4.48%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.69%EV -2.75%E -0.655%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.87%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -2.74%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 22:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.69%EV -2.75%E -0.655%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.87%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -2.74%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -2.75%E -0.655%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -7.72%E -4.00%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -1.29%E -0.379%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 16:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.75%E -0.655%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.31%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.26%EV -6.51%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -2.75%E -0.655%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -16.33%E -9.33%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-21 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -3.91%E -0.942%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.35%EV -7.72%E -4.00%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-21 22:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.13I 24.21%NM 22.88%EV -4.37%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.22%EV -6.29%E -3.21%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.90%EV -5.06%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.13I 24.21%NM 22.84%EV -4.37%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.13%EV -6.29%E -3.21%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.64%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.13I 24.21%NM 22.84%EV -4.37%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.13%EV -6.29%E -3.21%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.64%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 18:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.07%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.04%EV -9.16%E -4.82%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-21 16:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.64%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-21 16:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -9.16%E -4.82%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -5.64%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-21 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-21 17:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-21 17:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-21 17:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-21 17:04 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.02%EV -7.84%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.98%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.00%EV -8.26%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 12:52 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -8.54%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.17%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -8.54%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.17%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -10.85%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.55%E -2.71%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 00:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.90%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -8.55%E -2.71%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -11.55%E -6.24%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-21 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -11.55%E -6.24%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-21 16:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -11.55%E -6.24%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-21 16:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -11.55%E -6.24%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-21 16:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -13.17%E -3.51%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.05%EV -9.16%E -4.82%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.12%EV -10.87%E -3.54%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-23 11:23 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.55%EV -17.80%E -5.01%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.87%EV -11.07%E -5.95%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.58%EV -11.45%E -3.75%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.02%EV -17.80%E -5.01%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.59%EV -12.50%E -6.83%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.40%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-04-24 00:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.75%EV -21.27%E -6.26%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 46.23%EV -12.98%E -7.13%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.02%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 18.8% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.12% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.34% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.54% | 13.6% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |