Language:English
Toluca v Austin FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 57.71%1.73fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.62%57.68%57.88%60.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.631.621.7065.36%61.52%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Austin FC (Visit)
Prediction 18.59%5.38fair odd
EV +6.89%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.100%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.61%18.47%18.53%19.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.075.105.7522.22%19.73%19.61%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.70%4.22fair odd
EV -0.457%
Edge -0.109%
Kelly -0.143%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.72%23.86%23.59%25.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.783.704.2028.57%26.45%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 57.71%; Austin FC (Visit): 18.59%; Draw: 23.70%. For Austin FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.38. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.33%EV -7.09%E -4.40%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV +6.89%E +1.20%K +1.45%G +0.100% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.06%EV -5.91%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.33%EV -7.09%E -4.40%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV +6.89%E +1.20%K +1.45%G +0.100% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.06%EV -5.91%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.22%EV -5.93%E -3.64%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.07%EV +3.36%E +0.604%K +0.736%G +0.025% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -8.99%E -2.34%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -8.24%E -5.18%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV +2.24%E +0.408%K +0.498%G +0.011% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -2.83%E -0.689%K -0.912%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.70%E -7.65%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +2.24%E +0.408%K +0.498%G +0.011% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-26 12:48 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.10%EV -8.24%E -5.18%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%EV +0.382%E +0.071%K +0.087%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -6.51%E -4.02%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -2.41%E -0.458%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-27 00:21 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.45%EV -6.51%E -4.02%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -2.41%E -0.458%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -11.12%E -2.97%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.16%EV -4.78%E -2.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.31%EV -2.59%E -0.495%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.52%EV -3.30%E -0.809%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-27 00:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.51%EV -8.82%E -5.58%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -3.34%E -0.641%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-27 00:21 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.70%EV -1.89%E -1.11%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.38%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -5.19%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -13.49%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.19%EV -5.36%E -3.27%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -0.457%E -0.109%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-27 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -6.51%E -4.02%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -6.38%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-27 00:23 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -7.09%E -4.40%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -6.38%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -3.62%E -2.17%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -14.68%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.77%EV -4.20%E -2.53%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -14.68%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-27 00:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-27 00:23 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.78%EV -7.09%E -4.40%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.85%EV -9.84%E -2.03%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -11.12%E -2.97%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-27 00:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -4.78%E -2.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-27 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -4.78%E -2.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -6.51%E -4.02%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -17.05%E -4.87%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -17.05%E -4.87%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-27 00:18 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -17.05%E -4.87%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -17.05%E -4.87%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -7.09%E -4.40%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -11.70%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-27 00:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -9.40%E -5.98%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.84%EV -11.70%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.76%EV -8.82%E -5.58%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -12.63%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-27 00:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.25%EV -9.97%E -6.39%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -16.35%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-27 00:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.33% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 0.9% | 2026-08-27 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.33% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 0.9% | 2026-08-27 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.15% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.33% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52% | 1.2% | 2026-08-27 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.03% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.31% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66% | 1.4% | 2026-08-27 00:25 |