The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cruz Azul v Chicago Fire

2026-08-14 01:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruz Azul (Local)

Prediction 40.89%2.45fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.51%40.85%40.85%41.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.282.3546.51%44.12%43.86%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -2.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.68%32.69%32.57%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.832.902.9038.17%35.33%34.48%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -0.530%
Edge -0.141%
Kelly -0.193%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.34%26.47%26.57%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.76%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cruz Azul (Local): 40.89%; Chicago Fire (Visit): 32.58%; Draw: 26.53%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.75, with an expected value of -0.530%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -3.90%E -1.66%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 14:24
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.45%EV -5.13%E -2.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.04%EV -7.47%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.51%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -7.14%E -2.51%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.530%E -0.141%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.86%E -0.502%K -0.687%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-12 14:24
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 14:24
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 14:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 13:29
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.54%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.83%EV -7.47%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 14:15
Dabble (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-12 10:04
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.81%EV -14.64%E -5.59%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -15.12%E -4.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-12 14:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -5.95%E -2.59%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.81%EV -14.64%E -5.59%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -15.12%E -4.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-12 14:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:25
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.49%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 14:15
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -6.76%E -2.97%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.49%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 14:14
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -7.99%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.83%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-12 14:18
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.99%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 13:25
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -7.99%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.51%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-12 14:24
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -7.99%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.51%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-12 14:24
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -7.99%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.49%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 14:30
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -10.04%E -4.56%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 14:08
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -10.04%E -4.56%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 14:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.04%E -4.56%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -7.16%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-12 14:14
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.90%EV -10.04%E -4.56%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -14.64%E -5.59%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -12.47%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-12 14:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.90%EV -10.04%E -4.56%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -14.64%E -5.59%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -12.47%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-12 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -12.08%E -5.62%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 14:15
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -12.08%E -5.62%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 14:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.68%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%3.1%2026-08-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.04%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%3.2%2026-08-12 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.04%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%3.2%2026-08-12 14:10
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 39.96%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%5.2%2026-08-12 14:30

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.