Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruz Azul v Chicago Fire

Início: 2026-08-14 01:00 UTC

Final: Cruz Azul 1–2 Chicago Fire

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruz Azul (Local)

Previsão 39.20%2.55odd justa
EV -0.033%
Vantagem -0.013%
Kelly -0.022%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.22%39.29%39.18%41.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.202.312.252.5545.45%43.28%44.44%39.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Fire (Visitante)

Previsão 31.29%3.20odd justa
EV +1.68%
Vantagem +0.516%
Kelly +0.746%
Crescimento +0.013%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.66%31.29%31.28%33.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.623.043.063.2538.17%32.88%32.68%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.51%3.39odd justa
EV -2.61%
Vantagem -0.791%
Kelly -1.14%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.14%29.42%29.54%32.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.163.203.3034.48%31.62%31.25%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cruz Azul (Local): 39.20%; Chicago Fire (Visitante): 31.29%; Empate: 29.51%. Para Chicago Fire (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.20. 17 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.68%.

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 00:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:45
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 00:49
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +1.68%E +0.516%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 00:49
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.17%EV -2.39%E -0.958%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61%EV +0.427%E +0.133%K +0.193%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.22%EV -12.94%E -4.39%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-14 00:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.22%EV -7.09%E -2.99%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.55%EV -2.39%E -0.766%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.24%EV -3.79%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 00:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.22%EV -7.09%E -2.99%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.55%EV -2.39%E -0.766%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.24%EV -3.79%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 00:55
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.01%E -0.972%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -2.61%E -0.791%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 00:44
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.01%E -0.972%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 00:40
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.02%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.03%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.95%EV -2.91%E -0.883%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 00:55
ReBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.58%EV -2.39%E -0.958%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.40%EV -4.27%E -1.39%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-14 00:44
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 00:45
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 00:54
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 00:45
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -5.13%E -2.12%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.17%EV -6.77%E -2.27%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -9.99%E -3.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 00:44
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -5.13%E -2.12%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.17%EV -6.77%E -2.27%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -9.99%E -3.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 00:44
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -0.033%E -0.013%K -0.022%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 23:04
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 00:44
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 00:49
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.04%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 00:45
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 00:49
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -1.99%E -0.797%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -5.56%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 00:47
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -12.94%E -4.39%K -6.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 00:44
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -13.75%E -6.25%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 00:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -13.75%E -6.25%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 00:45
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 00:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -10.84%E -3.80%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.75%EV -14.42%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 00:44
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.51%E -2.75%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 00:49
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -13.96%E -5.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-13 23:44
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.20%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.66%EV -18.03%E -6.88%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 00:43
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.20%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.66%EV -18.03%E -6.88%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 00:43
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.20%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.66%EV -18.03%E -6.88%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 00:43
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.20%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.66%EV -18.03%E -6.88%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 00:43
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 37.39%3.20I 31.25%NM 32.48%3.45I 28.99%NM 30.13%-3.8%2026-08-14 00:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.49%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.65%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-08-14 00:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.49%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.65%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-08-14 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.49%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.65%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-08-14 00:45