Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruz Azul v Chicago Fire

2026-08-14 01:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruz Azul (Local)

Predicción 40.20%2.49momio equitativo
EV -4.32%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -3.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.17%40.19%40.03%41.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.292.282.3846.51%43.66%43.86%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Fire (Visitante)

Predicción 33.26%3.01momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -1.22%
Kelly -1.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.08%33.23%33.39%34.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.622.812.832.9038.17%35.63%35.27%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.54%3.77momio equitativo
EV -0.480%
Ventaja -0.128%
Kelly -0.175%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.34%26.58%26.58%28.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.463.503.7532.26%28.88%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cruz Azul (Local): 40.20%; Chicago Fire (Visitante): 33.26%; Empate: 26.54%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.77. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.75, con un valor esperado de -0.480%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -4.32%E -1.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.57%EV -10.30%E -3.05%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 15:14
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.02%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.49%EV -1.28%E -0.343%K -0.469%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 15:15
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 14:24
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 15:25
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.61%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.01%EV -6.20%E -2.20%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 15:25
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.61%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.01%EV -6.20%E -2.20%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 15:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 15:09
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.20%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.480%E -0.128%K -0.175%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.81%E -0.488%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-12 14:24
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.20%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.46%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 14:44
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 14:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 13:29
Dabble (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-12 10:04
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-12 15:30
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -12.85%E -4.91%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -17.73%E -5.72%K -8.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-12 15:09
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -12.85%E -4.91%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -17.73%E -5.72%K -8.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-12 15:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -12.85%E -4.91%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -17.73%E -5.72%K -8.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-12 15:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -12.85%E -4.91%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -17.73%E -5.72%K -8.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-12 15:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:25
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -8.34%E -3.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 13:29
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 13:25
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.46%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-12 14:24
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.46%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-12 14:24
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-12 15:13
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-12 15:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -11.56%E -5.25%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -11.86%E -4.47%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.41%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 15:29
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.57%E -6.31%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 14:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 39.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%2.7%2026-08-12 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 39.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%2.7%2026-08-12 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 39.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%2.7%2026-08-12 15:25
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.05%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.61%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.34%4.0%2026-08-12 15:25

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