Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shanghai Shenhua FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 12:00 UTC

Final: Shanghai Shenhua FC 2–3 Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shanghai Shenhua FC (Local)

Prediction 47.71%2.10fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.25%47.74%47.70%48.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.952.0455.56%51.64%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit)

Prediction 27.81%3.60fair odd
EV -0.709%
Edge -0.199%
Kelly -0.276%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.91%27.77%27.81%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.5733.33%30.27%30.30%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.48%4.09fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.697%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.16%24.49%24.49%26.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.723.704.0031.25%26.86%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shanghai Shenhua FC (Local): 47.71%; Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit): 27.81%; Draw: 24.48%. For Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.57, with an expected value of -0.709%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%EV -2.67%E -1.31%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.99%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 07:54
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.54%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 07:55
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.33%EV -5.06%E -2.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94%EV -0.709%E -0.199%K -0.276%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.73%EV -4.78%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-01 07:54
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -5.53%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -2.09%E -0.523%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 07:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -5.53%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -8.21%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 07:55
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.51%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.99%EV -1.54%E -0.436%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.50%EV -4.54%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-01 07:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.20%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -2.66%E -0.759%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.67%EV -5.76%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-01 07:55
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-01 07:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:55
LeoVegas🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:54
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:54
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:55
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:54
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -6.49%E -3.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 07:54
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.09%E -0.523%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 07:54
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.09%E -0.523%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 07:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -2.66%E -0.759%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.99%E -1.84%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 07:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -4.54%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 07:54
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-01 07:54
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-01 07:54
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.21%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-01 07:53
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -14.33%E -4.09%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-01 07:55
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -14.33%E -4.09%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-01 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -14.33%E -4.09%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-01 07:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -14.33%E -4.09%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-01 07:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18%EV -7.44%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -10.66%E -2.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-01 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.14%EV -7.44%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -9.43%E -2.55%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-01 07:54
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -7.92%E -4.10%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -4.05%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -5.76%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 07:54
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -7.92%E -4.10%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -4.05%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -5.76%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 07:55
Bet Right🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.58%EV -7.92%E -4.10%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.99%E -1.84%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 07:54
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.58%EV -7.92%E -4.10%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.99%E -1.84%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 07:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.56%EV -8.40%E -4.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.21%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-01 07:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.04%EV -8.40%E -4.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -10.66%E -2.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-01 07:53
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.04%EV -8.40%E -4.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -10.66%E -2.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-01 07:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.53%EV -8.87%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -4.32%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.52%EV -7.48%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-01 07:55
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.87%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -6.99%E -1.84%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-01 07:54
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.37%EV -8.87%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -10.66%E -2.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-01 07:55
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -8.87%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.88%E -3.30%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-01 07:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -8.87%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.88%E -3.30%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-01 07:55
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -9.35%E -4.92%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -2.09%E -0.523%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-01 07:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -9.35%E -4.92%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -6.99%E -1.84%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-01 07:55
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.90%EV -9.35%E -4.92%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -10.66%E -2.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.24%EV -11.26%E -6.05%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -13.78%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.88%E -3.30%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-01 07:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -11.74%E -6.34%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -13.11%E -3.69%K -5.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-01 07:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.25%EV -12.69%E -6.93%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.30%EV -13.78%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.45%EV -21.67%E -6.77%K -9.85%G +0.000%18.2%2026-05-01 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -14.12%E -7.85%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -16.56%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -11.88%E -3.30%K -4.57%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-01 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.51%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.67%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.81%-0.0%2026-05-01 07:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-05-01 07:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-05-01 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99%1.7%2026-05-01 07:54
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-01 07:54