The School of Odds

Chengdu Rongcheng FC v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 12:00 UTC

Final: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1–1 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local)

Prediction 75.61%1.32fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -8.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.11%75.20%75.69%76.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.231.2985%81%81%78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Visit)

Prediction 8.71%11.48fair odd
EV +4.53%
Edge +0.378%
Kelly +0.412%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.74%8.93%8.62%11.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.1510.0012.0013%10%10%8%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 15.68%6.38fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.225%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.09%15.87%15.69%17.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.735.756.3020%17%17%16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.91%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.04%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV +4.53%E +0.378%K +0.412%G +0.019%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.14%EV -1.19%E -0.189%K -0.225%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 11:44
SportsBet1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -8.52%E -7.04%K -40.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +4.53%E +0.378%K +0.412%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 11:44
Pinnacle1.25I 80.00%NM 76.40%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%11.95I 8.37%NM 7.99%EV +4.10%E +0.343%K +0.374%G +0.015%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.61%EV -4.02%E -0.656%K -0.784%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 11:54
Marathon Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.03%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.25%EV -2.00%E -0.178%K -0.195%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.72%EV -7.47%E -1.27%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 11:44
Coolbet1.26I 79.37%NM 74.98%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.22%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -9.82%E -1.71%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 11:38
Unibet (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.46%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 11:54
NordicBet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.28%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -4.33%E -0.710%K -0.849%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 11:54
Betway1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-11 11:39
PointsBet (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-11 11:54
FanDuel1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.27%E -7.73%K -46.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-11 11:45
Bet Victor1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.27%E -7.73%K -46.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-11 11:39
888sport1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 11:54
888sport (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 11:54
Paddy Power1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -10.79%E -9.14%K -59.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-11 11:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -10.79%E -9.14%K -59.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -4.18%E -0.380%K -0.418%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-11 11:49
GTbets1.29I 77.52%NM 74.54%EV -2.47%E -1.91%K -8.51%G +0.000%10.93I 9.15%NM 8.80%EV -4.79%E -0.438%K -0.482%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.66%EV -9.50%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-11 11:40
DraftKings1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -8.54%E -0.813%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 11:39
BetOnline.ag1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -8.54%E -0.813%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 11:54
LowVig.ag1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -8.54%E -0.813%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 11:54
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.38%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -8.54%E -0.813%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -9.03%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 11:49
Bovada1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 11:43
BetUS1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 11:44
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 11:24
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 11:24
betfred_uk1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-11 11:54
PlayUp1.25I 80.00%NM 73.36%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -17.66%E -3.36%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 11:49
Bet Right1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -9.82%E -1.71%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-11 11:55
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97%NM 74.85%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.02%EV -10.60%E -1.86%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-11 11:54
Everygame1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -9.27%E -7.73%K -46.37%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.89%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-11 11:39
Betsson1.23I 81.30%NM 74.96%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.46%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.41%EV -14.63%E -1.49%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.63%EV -7.47%E -1.27%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 11:45
Codere (IT)1.22I 81.97%NM 74.92%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.33%EV -14.63%E -1.49%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -9.03%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-11 11:44
Grosvenor1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -3.98%E -3.13%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:04
Unibet (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -3.98%E -3.13%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:04
TABtouch1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -3.98%E -3.13%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:04
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -3.98%E -3.13%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:04
Unibet1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -3.98%E -3.13%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:05
betPARX1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -3.98%E -3.13%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:04
BetRivers1.26I 79.37%NM 73.44%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -17.25%E -1.82%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -13.74%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 11:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -21.60%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -15.31%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-11 11:04
Winamax (DE)1.21I 82.64%NM 74.84%EV -8.52%E -7.04%K -40.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -21.60%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -5.90%E -0.983%K -1.18%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 11:44
Virgin Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 73.06%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -21.60%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -16.88%E -3.18%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-11 11:04
LiveScore Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 73.06%EV -7.01%E -5.70%K -30.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -21.60%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -16.88%E -3.18%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-11 11:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 73.76%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -25.96%E -3.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -9.82%E -1.71%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 11:50
Neds1.22I 81.97%NM 73.76%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -25.96%E -3.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -9.82%E -1.71%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 11:49
Winamax (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 74.34%EV -10.03%E -8.43%K -52.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -25.96%E -3.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.25%EV -9.03%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-11 11:55
BoyleSports1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -5.49%E -4.39%K -21.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -30.31%E -3.79%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -21.58%E -4.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-11 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.03%0.8%2026-07-11 11:54
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.03%0.8%2026-07-11 11:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.93%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%1.0%2026-07-11 11:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.93%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%1.0%2026-07-11 11:55
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74%1.7%2026-07-11 11:40