Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union La Calera v La Serena

Início: 2026-08-31 22:15 UTC

Final: Union La Calera 0–1 La Serena

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union La Calera (Local)

Previsão 41.40%2.42odd justa
EV -3.94%
Vantagem -1.70%
Kelly -2.99%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.83%41.41%41.55%43.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.052.212.202.3248.78%45.19%45.45%43.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

La Serena (Visitante)

Previsão 31.18%3.21odd justa
EV +1.35%
Vantagem +0.415%
Kelly +0.599%
Crescimento +0.008%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.28%31.18%31.13%32.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.962.953.2536.36%33.83%33.90%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.41%3.65odd justa
EV -1.32%
Vantagem -0.366%
Kelly -0.507%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.03%27.41%27.33%28.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.333.303.6032.26%30.04%30.30%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Union La Calera (Local): 41.40%; La Serena (Visitante): 31.18%; Empate: 27.41%. Para La Serena (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.21. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.35%.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV +1.35%E +0.415%K +0.599%G +0.008%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.68%EV -8.17%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-31 21:55
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -0.212%E -0.066%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 21:45
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -0.212%E -0.066%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -0.212%E -0.066%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -0.212%E -0.066%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 21:45
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -0.212%E -0.066%K -0.096%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 21:45
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.53%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.17%EV -0.835%E -0.263%K -0.383%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.30%EV -7.07%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-31 22:14
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.47%EV -3.94%E -1.70%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.04%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 22:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.86%EV -5.60%E -2.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.35%EV -4.33%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.86%EV -5.60%E -2.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.35%EV -4.33%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:50
BetAnything🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.86%EV -5.60%E -2.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.35%EV -4.33%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:45
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -4.89%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.01%EV -7.62%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 21:40
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.89%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.17%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 22:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.99%EV -9.32%E -4.26%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -4.89%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 10:19
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.07%EV -13.88%E -6.67%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -4.89%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 21:45
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.43%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 21:35
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:05
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.40%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.17%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 09:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.79%EV -14.29%E -6.90%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.79%EV -14.29%E -6.90%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 21:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.92%EV -8.50%E -3.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.30%EV -7.70%E -2.60%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.78%EV -5.15%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 22:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 22:05
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 22:14
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 21:55
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 21:55
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 22:14
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.83%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-31 09:30
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -1.32%E -0.366%K -0.507%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 22:05
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 22:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 22:14
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 22:13
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -13.05%E -6.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-31 09:10
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 21:24
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-31 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -11.13%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-31 22:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -11.13%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 22:05
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-31 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-31 22:00
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -15.02%E -4.85%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-31 22:14
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -15.12%E -7.38%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-31 22:14
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 22:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 22:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 22:14
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 21:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 21:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 21:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.42%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%0.6%2026-08-31 22:10
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.56%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%1.0%2026-08-31 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-08-31 22:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-08-31 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-08-31 22:10
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.24%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.93%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.83%2.7%2026-08-31 22:10