Language:English
Palestino v Universidad de Concepción
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palestino (Local)
Prediction 54.36%1.84fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.90%54.28%54.38%55.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.691.681.7962.11%59.16%59.52%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Universidad de Concepción (Visit)
Prediction 21.15%4.73fair odd
EV -0.593%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.160%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.80%21.18%21.12%22.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.354.344.7025.00%23.01%23.04%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.49%4.08fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.54%24.50%25.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.713.753.9028.57%26.94%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palestino (Local): 54.36%; Universidad de Concepción (Visit): 21.15%; Draw: 24.49%. For Universidad de Concepción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.70, with an expected value of -0.593%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.62%EV -2.70%E -1.51%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.56I 21.93%NM 21.05%EV -3.55%E -0.779%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.33%EV -7.17%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.82%EV -3.79%E -2.14%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.57%EV -2.07%E -0.448%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.61%EV -8.88%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.33%E -2.46%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.73%EV -2.29%E -0.495%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.88%E -2.79%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 17:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.30%EV -5.42%E -3.12%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -5.42%E -3.12%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -14.27%E -4.08%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -14.27%E -4.08%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -5.96%E -3.45%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -14.27%E -4.08%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.51%E -3.78%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.51%E -3.78%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.19%EV -7.05%E -4.12%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -8.00%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.51%EV -7.41%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 22:18 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.60%E -4.47%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.09%EV -7.60%E -4.47%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -9.05%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-06 22:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.60%E -4.47%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -8.14%E -4.82%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.71%E -0.589%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -8.14%E -4.82%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 22:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -8.14%E -4.82%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.41%EV -8.14%E -4.82%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -9.05%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-06 22:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -0.593%E -0.126%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -0.593%E -0.126%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -0.593%E -0.126%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -0.593%E -0.126%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 21:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -0.593%E -0.126%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.07%EV -8.68%E -5.17%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -10.11%E -2.38%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.99%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -9.05%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.75%EV -9.77%E -5.89%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -10.31%E -6.25%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.65%EV -10.31%E -6.25%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -9.05%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.70%EV -10.86%E -6.62%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.43%EV -10.86%E -6.62%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -11.94%E -7.37%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.65%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.81%EV -11.94%E -7.37%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.01%EV -13.05%E -3.68%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.81%EV -11.94%E -7.37%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -6.94%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.01%EV -13.05%E -3.68%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.91%EV -11.94%E -7.37%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-09-06 22:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.44%EV -12.49%E -7.76%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.69%EV -13.05%E -3.68%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-06 22:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.99% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.28% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.02% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-06 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.02% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.02% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-06 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.54% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98% | 1.7% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.84% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54% | 1.9% | 2026-09-06 22:20 |