The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Palestino v Universidad de Concepción

2026-09-06 22:30 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palestino (Local)

Prediction 58.86%1.70fair odd
EV -5.82%
Edge -3.64%
Kelly -9.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.38%58.86%59.12%59.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.541.6066.67%64.55%64.72%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Universidad de Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 17.60%5.68fair odd
EV +0.294%
Edge +0.052%
Kelly +0.062%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.70%17.60%17.23%18.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.025.005.7021.74%19.92%20.00%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV -5.82%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.65%23.54%23.65%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.894.004.0027.78%25.70%25.00%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Palestino (Local): 58.86%; Universidad de Concepción (Visit): 17.60%; Draw: 23.54%. For Universidad de Concepción (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.68. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.70, producing a positive expected value of +0.294%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.50%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.70%EV +0.294%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -8.77%E -5.66%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -6.74%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 17:55
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.68%EV -9.35%E -6.07%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -6.74%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 17:55
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.97%EV -8.77%E -5.66%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.17%EV -11.50%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 17:59
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.02%E -2.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 18:00
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.94%E -6.50%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.02%E -2.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.94%E -6.50%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.02%E -2.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 17:55
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.78%E -2.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 15:45
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.78%E -2.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 15:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.07%EV -10.53%E -6.93%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.39%EV -15.54%E -3.24%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -11.71%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-30 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.80%EV -11.71%E -7.81%K -23.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.45%EV -17.30%E -3.68%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.75%EV -14.06%E -3.85%K -5.31%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-30 14:05
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.38%EV -11.71%E -7.81%K -23.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.71%EV -19.06%E -4.14%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -15.24%E -4.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-30 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.45%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%8.1%2026-08-30 18:40