The School of Odds

Ñublense v Palestino

2026-07-26 19:00 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ñublense (Local)

Prediction 35.40%2.82fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.08%35.44%35.39%36.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.6843%39%39%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 35.29%2.83fair odd
EV -5.43%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.05%35.31%35.32%36.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.602.6842%39%38%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.31%3.41fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -0.990%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%29.25%29.29%30.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.153.3034%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -5.13%E -1.91%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -5.43%E -2.03%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-13 13:09
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -5.13%E -1.91%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -5.43%E -2.03%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-13 13:09
Marathon Bet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.55%E -2.88%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.31%EV -7.37%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 11:34
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.55%E -2.88%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.31%EV -7.37%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 11:39
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-13 06:35
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -9.73%E -3.82%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -3.27%E -0.990%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-13 06:34
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -9.73%E -3.82%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -3.27%E -0.990%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-13 06:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -9.73%E -3.82%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-13 06:35
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-13 06:34
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -14.99%E -5.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-13 06:34
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -14.99%E -5.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-13 06:34
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -14.99%E -5.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-13 06:34
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -15.31%E -6.38%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-13 06:35
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.15%EV -15.04%E -6.27%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.41%EV -13.55%E -5.53%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -10.59%E -3.47%K -5.17%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-13 06:34
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 36.52%EV -18.58%E -8.08%K -14.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.00%EV -15.31%E -6.38%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.48%EV -13.53%E -4.58%K -6.94%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-13 06:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-13 09:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-13 09:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-13 09:45