Language:English
Ñublense v Palestino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ñublense (Local)
Prediction 40.57%2.47fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.07%40.53%40.53%42.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.252.252.4047.17%44.46%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palestino (Visit)
Prediction 30.43%3.29fair odd
EV +0.403%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.175%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%30.40%30.42%32.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.3035.71%33.16%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%29.06%29.05%30.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.173.203.3233.90%31.58%31.25%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ñublense (Local): 40.57%; Palestino (Visit): 30.43%; Draw: 29.01%. For Palestino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.403%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.80%EV -7.51%E -3.29%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.403%E +0.122%K +0.175%G +0.001% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.81%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.73%EV -1.42%E -0.439%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.46%EV -5.15%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-26 18:46 |
| BetAnything | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| TABtouch | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| Grosvenor | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| Unibet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| BetRivers | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -14.00%E -6.60%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-26 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.52%EV -7.10%E -3.10%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -5.07%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -9.50%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| 1xBet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.29%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.83%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.88%EV -3.70%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| GTbets | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.15%EV -7.10%E -3.10%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.30%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-26 18:41 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-26 18:35 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -14.43%E -4.89%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| NordicBet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Betsson | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.68%EV -8.32%E -3.68%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Everygame | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -11.53%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| DraftKings | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Betway | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| FanDuel | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-26 18:41 |
| Bovada | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| BetUS | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| BetMGM | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| SportsBet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -11.53%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| betano_uk | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Bet Victor | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:49 |
| Fanatics | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| 888sport | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| BoyleSports | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| betfred_uk | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Paddy Power | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.98%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.59%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%EV -13.29%E -4.66%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Coral | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-26 18:41 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Neds | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-26 18:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.59% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72% | 1.0% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Matchbook | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.52% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30% | 1.5% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |