Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ñublense v Palestino

Início: 2026-07-26 19:00 UTC

Final: Ñublense 2–0 Palestino

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ñublense (Local)

Previsão 40.57%2.47odd justa
EV -2.64%
Vantagem -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.07%40.53%40.53%42.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.122.252.252.4047.17%44.46%44.44%41.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Palestino (Visitante)

Previsão 30.43%3.29odd justa
EV +0.403%
Vantagem +0.122%
Kelly +0.175%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.56%30.40%30.42%32.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.023.003.3035.71%33.16%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.01%3.45odd justa
EV -3.70%
Vantagem -1.11%
Kelly -1.59%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.63%29.06%29.05%30.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.173.203.3233.90%31.58%31.25%30.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ñublense (Local): 40.57%; Palestino (Visitante): 30.43%; Empate: 29.01%. Para Palestino (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.29. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.403%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.80%EV -7.51%E -3.29%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.403%E +0.122%K +0.175%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 18:50
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.81%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.73%EV -1.42%E -0.439%K -0.635%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.46%EV -5.15%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 18:46
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 18:30
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 18:30
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 18:30
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -11.56%E -5.30%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -2.64%E -0.825%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -14.00%E -6.60%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.52%EV -7.10%E -3.10%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -5.07%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -9.50%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 18:45
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.29%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.83%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.88%EV -3.70%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 18:50
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.15%EV -7.10%E -3.10%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.30%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 18:41
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -14.43%E -4.89%K -7.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 18:50
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.68%EV -8.32%E -3.68%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 18:45
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -11.53%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 18:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 18:55
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 18:41
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 18:50
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 18:50
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -10.25%E -3.47%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -11.53%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-26 18:45
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 18:49
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 18:50
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.69%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 18:55
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.77%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-26 18:40
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.75%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 18:45
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 18:40
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.98%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.59%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -12.78%E -5.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%EV -13.29%E -4.66%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 18:45
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-26 18:41
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-26 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-26 18:40
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.72%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.81%E -5.29%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-26 18:41
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 41.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-07-26 18:55
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-07-26 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.52%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-07-26 18:55
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30%1.5%2026-07-26 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-07-26 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-07-26 18:50