La escuela de los momios

Ñublense v Palestino

2026-07-26 19:00 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Ñublense (Local)

Predicción 42.12%2.37momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -1.55%
Kelly -2.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.12%42.11%42.12%43.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.182.202.2950.00%45.93%45.45%43.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Palestino (Visitante)

Predicción 28.75%3.48momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -0.490%
Kelly -0.693%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.37%28.75%28.73%30.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.173.153.4233.90%31.57%31.75%29.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.13%3.43momio equitativo
EV -3.87%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.81%29.14%29.16%30.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.153.153.3033.90%31.76%31.75%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
GTbets2.29I 43.67%NM 41.84%EV -3.54%E -1.55%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.12%EV -5.41%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.04%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-24 13:45
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.26%EV -3.96%E -1.74%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.18%EV -1.68%E -0.490%K -0.693%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.56%EV -5.04%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 07:10
LowVig.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -4.81%E -2.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -3.69%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 02:40
BetOnline.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -4.81%E -2.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -3.69%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 02:39
BetAnything2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -4.81%E -2.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -3.69%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 02:39
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -2.25%E -0.662%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 14:25
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.13%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 04:20
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 04:35
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.91%EV -6.49%E -2.92%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.45%EV -5.99%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.63%EV -8.53%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-20 04:14
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.49%E -2.92%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 07:09
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.49%E -2.92%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 07:10
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.13%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 06:09
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 07:10
betano_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 07:04
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.56%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-24 08:04
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -6.28%E -1.93%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.49%EV -8.53%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 04:15
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 17:05
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 17:05
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 17:05
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 17:05
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 02:40
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 04:32
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-20 17:05
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 04:34
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 04:20
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 07:09
LiveScore Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-20 17:05
Codere (IT)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -9.02%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 07:14
Virgin Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 41.58%EV -9.02%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -11.16%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-20 17:05
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 19:04
LeoVegas2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 08:05
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -12.31%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-25 19:10
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -5.13%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -14.07%E -4.77%K -7.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 07:53
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-20 15:54
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-20 17:04
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-20 17:05
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-20 17:05
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 04:33
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 04:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 04:29
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 04:29
SportsBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -10.70%E -5.05%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.00%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-20 02:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-25 19:00
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-20 02:38
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -9.44%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-26 07:09
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.65%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -12.31%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 08:05
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-23 19:05
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -14.07%E -4.77%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-22 05:50
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.65%E -6.66%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -13.75%E -4.58%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-21 10:05
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.85%EV -15.76%E -7.88%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.05%EV -15.19%E -5.15%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.10%EV -11.16%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%16.7%2026-07-24 08:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.51%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.74%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-07-26 07:45
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-07-26 07:50
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-07-26 07:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%2.0%2026-07-26 04:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%2.0%2026-07-26 04:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%2.0%2026-07-26 04:35