Language:English
Audax Italiano v Ñublense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Audax Italiano (Local)
Prediction 39.45%2.54fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.61%39.47%39.48%41.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.4645.45%43.20%43.38%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ñublense (Visit)
Prediction 31.30%3.19fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.958%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.77%31.28%31.30%32.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.952.953.1036.36%33.95%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.25%3.42fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.598%
Kelly -0.852%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.27%29.25%29.21%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.153.3534.48%31.91%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Audax Italiano (Local): 39.45%; Ñublense (Visit): 31.30%; Draw: 29.25%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -2.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.09%EV -2.96%E -1.20%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.22%EV -3.60%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.68%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-10 23:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -6.10%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 23:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.79%E -3.79%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 23:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-10 23:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-10 23:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-10 23:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-10 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.10%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-10 23:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.10%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-10 23:33 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.10%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-10 23:33 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -6.73%E -2.26%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-10 23:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -6.73%E -2.26%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-10 23:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -6.73%E -2.26%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-10 23:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -13.92%E -5.06%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.24%E -4.08%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-10 23:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -13.92%E -5.06%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.24%E -4.08%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-10 23:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -6.51%E -2.75%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.62%EV -2.00%E -0.598%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-10 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -6.51%E -2.75%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -13.92%E -5.06%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.24%E -4.08%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-10 23:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -6.51%E -2.75%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -13.92%E -5.06%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.24%E -4.08%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-10 23:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.30%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.10%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-10 23:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -7.30%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.66%E -2.60%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-10 23:43 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.30%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.93%E -1.52%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-10 23:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.30%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -7.30%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.66%E -2.60%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-10 23:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.30%EV -8.48%E -3.66%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 30.80%EV -7.35%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -10.78%E -3.53%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-10 23:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 39.74%EV -8.88%E -3.84%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -7.66%E -2.60%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-10 23:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-10 23:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-10 23:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.79%E -3.79%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-10 23:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -10.79%E -3.79%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-10 23:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.36%E -4.41%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-10 23:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -15.17%E -5.23%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-10 23:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -15.17%E -5.23%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-10 23:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -9.27%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -15.17%E -5.23%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-10 23:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.53%EV -9.67%E -4.22%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 30.83%EV -5.79%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.64%EV -5.22%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-10 04:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -11.24%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -9.23%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-10 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.24%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.86%E -3.42%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-10 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.24%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.36%E -4.41%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-10 23:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.24%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.36%E -4.41%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-10 23:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.24%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.36%E -4.41%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-10 23:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -12.03%E -5.40%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 23:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -12.03%E -5.40%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 23:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -12.03%E -5.40%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -12.03%E -5.40%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 23:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -12.03%E -5.40%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 23:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -12.03%E -5.40%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -2.97%E -0.958%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.39%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 23:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -13.22%E -6.01%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-10 23:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -13.22%E -6.01%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -4.53%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-10 23:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -13.22%E -6.01%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -7.66%E -2.60%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.32%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-10 23:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.48%EV -13.22%E -6.01%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.25%EV -10.79%E -3.79%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -7.85%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-10 23:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -13.22%E -6.01%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -12.36%E -4.41%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -12.24%E -4.08%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-10 23:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 1.0% | 2026-08-10 23:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.20% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93% | 1.2% | 2026-08-10 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.2% | 2026-08-10 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.2% | 2026-08-10 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.2% | 2026-08-10 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.2% | 2026-08-10 23:55 |
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