Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Audax Italiano v Ñublense

2026-08-11 00:00 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Audax Italiano (Local)

Prediction 40.74%2.45fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.59%40.66%40.93%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.252.3547.62%44.65%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ñublense (Visit)

Prediction 29.95%3.34fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%29.97%29.80%30.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.053.1735.71%32.98%32.79%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.31%3.41fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -0.997%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%29.38%29.27%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.123.3034.48%32.18%32.05%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Audax Italiano (Local): 40.74%; Ñublense (Visit): 29.95%; Draw: 29.31%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -3.29%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -7.15%E -2.31%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -3.29%E -0.997%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 02:09
Betsson2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -5.48%E -2.36%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -8.65%E -2.83%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 01:54
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -5.48%E -2.36%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -8.65%E -2.83%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 01:54
Pinnacle2.31I 43.29%NM 40.99%EV -5.89%E -2.55%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.87%EV -5.05%E -1.59%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-03 01:25
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%EV -6.70%E -2.93%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.66%EV -5.95%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.66%EV -7.98%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 00:53
Marathon Bet2.27I 44.05%NM 40.81%EV -7.52%E -3.31%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.69%EV -6.55%E -2.10%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.50%EV -7.98%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-03 00:55
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.33%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.15%E -2.31%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.69%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-03 00:57
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.33%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.15%E -2.31%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 20:35
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.33%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.14%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-02 20:20
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.33%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.14%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-02 20:20
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.33%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.14%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-02 20:20
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -10.37%E -4.71%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.15%E -2.31%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 20:20
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -10.37%E -4.71%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.15%E -2.31%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 20:24
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.37%E -4.71%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.14%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 20:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.37%E -4.71%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.14%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 21:10
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -12.41%E -5.77%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%EV -14.64%E -5.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 20:20
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.41%E -5.77%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-02 20:24
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.01%EV -14.44%E -6.88%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.76%EV -16.13%E -5.76%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.24%EV -10.62%E -3.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-02 20:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 40.69%2.84I 35.21%NM 30.37%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.94%15.9%2026-08-02 20:20