Language:English
Vila Nova v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 70.08%1.43fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -8.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.54%70.06%69.97%72.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.3880.00%75.37%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 9.91%10.10fair odd
EV +8.96%
Edge +0.815%
Kelly +0.896%
Growth +0.080%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.47%9.94%9.95%12.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.839.0011.0014.29%11.33%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.01%5.00fair odd
EV -0.936%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.237%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.80%20.00%20.08%21.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.524.504.9523.81%22.13%22.22%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 70.08%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 9.91%; Draw: 20.01%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.10. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.96%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +8.96%E +0.815%K +0.896%G +0.080% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -4.94%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.70%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +8.96%E +0.815%K +0.896%G +0.080% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.91%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.77%EV +7.97%E +0.731%K +0.805%G +0.064% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.32%EV -0.936%E -0.189%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.20%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -1.94%E -0.395%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-19 22:56 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.23%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.94%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 22:56 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.23%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.94%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 22:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.18%EV -12.40%E -9.92%K -49.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -3.94%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.29%EV -12.40%E -9.92%K -49.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-19 22:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.29%EV -12.40%E -9.92%K -49.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.77%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.51%EV -3.42%E -0.351%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.46%EV -3.42%E -0.351%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 23:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.73%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.55%EV -3.92%E -0.404%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.50%EV -6.09%E -4.55%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.27%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 9.89%EV -6.39%E -0.676%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.84%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.59%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -4.94%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:56 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -13.34%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -13.34%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 23:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.59%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.44%EV -12.83%E -1.46%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-19 22:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -5.39%E -3.99%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -15.80%E -1.86%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.81%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -15.80%E -1.86%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -13.34%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.55%EV -6.09%E -4.55%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -4.69%E -3.45%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -12.94%E -2.98%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.10%EV -6.09%E -4.55%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.99%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -13.94%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.10%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.00%EV -14.95%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.10%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.00%EV -14.95%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.54%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -30.66%E -4.38%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.54%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -30.66%E -4.38%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:26 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.32% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-08-19 23:10 |